According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from January 2nd to 5th (as of 3:00 pm), the average price of methanol at East China ports in the domestic market decreased by 2,409 RMB/ton from 24,50 RMB/ton. During the cycle, prices fell by 1.67%, with a month on month decrease of 1.30% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.83%. The domestic supply has increased, and the market mentality is biased towards emptiness. Some methanol production enterprises have lowered prices and offered discounts to ship, but their inventory is high and their purchasing sentiment is average, resulting in weak methanol procurement prices.
As of the close on January 5th, the closing price of methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract of methanol futures, 2405, opened at 2,390 RMB/ton, with a highest price of 2,401 RMB/ton and a lowest price of 2,367 RMB/ton. It closed at 2,386 RMB/ton in the end, a decrease of 18% or 0.75% compared to the previous trading day's settlement. The trading volume was 900,535 lots, with a position of 1,153,815 lots and a daily increase of 24,739 lots.
On the cost and supply side, global coal supply remains stable, domestic imports have increased, and the increase in domestic demand is not sufficient to support coal prices at high levels; In terms of demand, the overall pressure on inventory in power plants is relatively low. Currently, the terminal mainly relies on long-term cooperative replenishment, with on-demand replenishment. The demand for coal in the market is relatively flat, and the overall sentiment is wait-and-see. The short-term coal market maintains a weak operation. The cost side of methanol is influenced by bearish factors.
On the demand side, downstream formaldehyde: Shandong Lianyi unit is operating at reduced load, while Henan Lankao unit is operating at half load, resulting in a continued decrease in formaldehyde demand; Downstream acetic acid: While the constant force device continues to increase its load, the main factories in Jiangsu have maintenance plans, resulting in a decrease in demand for acetic acid; Downstream DME: Chongqing Wanlilai Parking and Henan Xinxiang Xinlianxin Parking have reduced demand for DME; Downstream chlorides: Annual inspection of Ningbo Juhua plant, reduced demand for chlorides; Downstream MTBE: Qingzhou Tianan has plans to start construction, resulting in an increase in demand for MTBE. The demand for methanol is influenced by bearish factors.
Supply side, maintenance of a set of equipment in Huayi, Guangxi and Shandong; One unit in Shandong and three units in Inner Mongolia have reduced production; Inner Mongolia Chifeng BoRMB, Yulin Yankuang, Jiutai New Materials (Tuoxian), Guangxi Huayi, and Shanxi Tianze facilities have been restored. The overall recovery amount exceeds the loss amount, resulting in an increase in capacity utilization. The supply side of methanol is affected by bearish factors.
In terms of external trading, as of the close on January 4th, the closing price of methanol in the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market was $338.50-339.50/ton, a decrease of $1/ton. The closing price of methanol in the US Gulf methanol market is 97.00-98.00 cents/gallon; The closing price of the FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 284.00-285.00 euros/ton, a decrease of 10 euros/ton.
In the future market forecast, coal prices may continue to operate weakly, and cost support is difficult to find. The market has abundant supply of goods, while traditional downstream demand has shown a downward trend in consumption due to the influence of the off-season. Methanol analysts from SunSirs predict that there may still be a possibility of a decline in the domestic methanol market in the short term.
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