Price trend

According to the business data analysis system of SunSirs, from January 12th to 16th (as of 15:00), the domestic methanol market price at East China ports fell from 2,253 RMB/ton to around 2,220 RMB/ton, representing a 0.55% decrease during the period, a 6.03% increase compared to the previous month, and a 17.31% decrease compared to the same period last year. The domestic methanol market operated in a volatile and consolidating manner. Methanol inventories at ports decreased significantly, but the inventory levels remained high, and demand was weak due to poor profitability in downstream industries. Due to high inventories at enterprises and weak downstream demand, the market continued to be sluggish.

As of the close of trading on January 16th, the closing price of methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange for January 16, 2026, declined. The main methanol futures contract 2605 opened at 2,261 RMB/ton, reached a high of 2,270 RMB/ton, a low of 2,228 RMB/ton, and closed at 2,239 RMB/ton, down 45 RMB/ton from the previous trading day's settlement price, a decrease of 1.97%. The trading volume was 1,176,840 lots, the open interest was 824,058 lots, and the daily change in open interest was -5,318 lots.

Market analysis

From a cost perspective, With limited demand for coal, prices remained relatively stable, providing moderate support to methanol production costs. The impact of costs on the market was therefore mixed.

On the demand side, port demand for olefins had decreased, leading to inventory reduction, but apparent demand remained weak, directly contributing to price pressure. Most downstream products were affected by methanol prices, and the demand side for methanol was bearish.

On the supply side, the Xinxiang Zhongxin plant was undergoing maintenance; Xinjiang Tianye and Zhongyuan Dahua plants reduced production; and the Inner Mongolia Jiuding, Henan Shouchuang, and Shanxi Lubao plants had resumed operations. Overall, the production losses outweighed the gains from resumed operations, resulting in decreased output and lower capacity utilization. These factors were generally positive for methanol market.

In the international market, as of the close of trading on January 15th, the CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at US$321.5-322.5/ton. The FOB US Gulf methanol market closed at US$88.5-89.5 cents/gallon; the European FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at€261.5-262.5/ton, up€2/ton.

Market outlook

Due to the consistently high operating rates in the methanol industry, ample supply and competition among different regions, and persistently high inventory levels downstream leading to rational purchasing decisions for new orders, the supply side is accelerating its delivery pace. According to analysts at SunSirs, the domestic methanol spot market is expected to fluctuate downwards.

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