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SunSirs: Affected by Weather, China Asphalt Prices Fluctuates
December 20 2023 10:05:01SunSirs(Selena)

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the asphalt market fluctuates between regions. From December 12th to 19th, the price of asphalt in Shandong region increased from 3454 RMB/ton to 3477 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.68%, a month on month decrease of 5.35%, and a year-on-year increase of 0.07%.

International crude oil has been continuously declining, with weakened support on the cost side. Some businesses are mainly taking a wait-and-see approach, and market demand support is limited. The weather in the northern region has changed significantly, with temperatures rapidly falling. In addition, with the arrival of rainy and snowy weather, downstream terminal construction has basically turned into a shutdown state, and there is very little demand for road terminals in the area. The production and sales in the southern region are basically balanced, and the recovery of downstream demand is still acceptable. Businesses mainly purchase according to demand. The price may remain stable with a weak trend.

On the supply side, the operating rate of most major production enterprises has decreased. The comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has decreased compared to the previous month, which has had a positive impact on the supply side.

On the cost side, the international oil price trend has declined. As of the 18th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was reported at $77.95 per barrel. Firstly, the unexpected increase in CPI data and the rebound in inflation have lowered market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut at the beginning of next year; The crude oil market has shown a downward trend due to market concerns about oversupply. Secondly, the results of the OPEC+ production policy meeting did not meet market expectations. On the one hand, the reduction in production was not as expected, and on the other hand, the voluntary reduction in production was questionable, putting greater pressure on the supply side in the future. Finally, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that interest rate hikes aimed at curbing inflation may come to an end, but there is still a possibility of further rate hikes. Negative factors dominate, leading to a decline in international oil prices during this cycle.

On the demand side, the main demand is in various regions, with small transactions being the main focus. The widespread rain, snow, and cooling weather have hindered the actual demand, and the purchasing enthusiasm of traders is not high. Some resources are mainly stored in the warehouse. The demand for asphalt in the market is mixed.

As of the close of December 19th, the petroleum asphalt futures market has risen. The main asphalt contract 2403 opened at 3,675 RMB/ton, with a highest price of 3,719 RMB/ton and a lowest price of 3,670 RMB/ton. It closed at 3704 RMB/ton in the last trading day, an increase of 22 RMB/ton or 0.60% compared to the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 168,663 lots and a holding volume of 324,881 lots, and a daily increase of 16,808 lots.

In the future market forecast, widespread rain, snow, and cooling weather will hinder actual demand, and traders will have low purchasing enthusiasm. Some resources will mainly be stored in the warehouse. Asphalt analysts from SunSirs predict that domestic short-term asphalt prices will remain stable, moderate, and weak.


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