According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the recent domestic refined gasoline and diesel prices have shown an upward trend. As of the 30th, the price of 92# gasoline in China was 8,421.8 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 1.77% in the second half of the year and a year-on-year increase of 7.54%; The domestic price of 0# diesel is 7,561.4 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 0.84% in the latter half of the year and a year-on-year decrease of 9.56%.
The expectation of OPEC+ crude oil production reduction in the near future has supported the continuous rise in crude oil market prices. As of the 29th, the settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures main contract was $77.86 per barrel, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was $82.88 per barrel. On the one hand, OPEC+ has the possibility of extending and deepening production cuts, mainly due to the organization's concerns about weak global crude oil demand and member countries' demands for high oil prices. Saudi Arabia may continue to implement additional production cuts, and the voluntary policy of reducing production by 1 million barrels per day may be extended until the second/third quarter of 2024. This news has boosted the crude oil market. On the other hand, US crude oil and gasoline inventories have decreased. As of the week ending November 24th, US crude oil inventories decreased by 817,000 barrels, which to some extent supported international oil prices. Overall, supported by positive news in recent times, the crude oil market has shown an upward trend, while the cost side has supported a rise in domestic refined oil prices.
Recently, due to the shortage of raw materials, the operating rate of Shandong local refining has declined in late November. In addition, by the end of the month, the operating rate of Shandong local refining was around 64%, indicating a weak overall operating rate of atmospheric and vacuum distillation; The maintenance and operation of domestic main refineries have slightly declined, and the supply side has slightly declined. It is expected that the production of gasoline and diesel will both decline in November, which to some extent supports the domestic refined oil market prices, and the price of gasoline and diesel will rise slightly.
In terms of gasoline, the short-term lack of holiday support has led to a return to normal travel demand and a loss of air conditioning oil support. The gasoline demand situation is average, and the gasoline market has not seen significant growth. In terms of diesel, with the impact of low temperature, rain, and snow weather, the demand for diesel brought by the infrastructure industry is gradually weakening, and outdoor infrastructure, engineering, and other construction projects have declined. However, there has been an increase in livestock and poultry exports, and there is still support for fishery production demand. The long and short game has led to fluctuations in diesel market prices.
Market forecast: On the eve of the OPEC+ meeting, oil prices tend to fluctuate within a range, mainly due to news disturbances. In addition, the weakening of the US dollar may provide support for oil prices in the near future. However, the poor demand in Europe and America will correspondingly suppress the crude oil market, and oil prices may experience broad fluctuations. In terms of domestic supply, Shandong refineries have maintained a weak pattern of production, with little change in supply. Downstream demand is mainly in demand, and the short-term trend of gasoline and diesel prices is mainly volatile.
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