Price trend

According to data from SunSirs, in September, the price of seamless tubes first rose and then fell, and the overall adjustment was not significant. At the beginning of the month, the quotation for 20# and 108 * 4.5 seamless tubes was 4,700 RMB/ton, and at the end of the month, it was still ended at 4,700 RMB/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 7.84%.

Analysis review

In terms of raw materials: In September, the prices of tube billets were mixed. The factory price of Dongfang Hot Rolled Tube Billet was 4,120 RMB/ton, a decrease of 180 RMB/ton compared to the previous month. The factory price of XintianGang 20# Hot Rolled Tube Billet was 3,780 RMB/ton, an increase of 120 RMB/ton compared to the same period last month. The factory price of Tangshan Wenfeng 2# Continuous Casting Tube Billet was 3,800 RMB/ton, which remained unchanged from the previous month. Although the increase in coke prices had been fully implemented, it had little impact on the finished steels, and the high priced resources of manufacturers had been hindered in their transactions.

In terms of demand, in September, the overall market showed a state of neither peak nor off-season. Gold September was about to end, and there were no obvious signs of recovery in market demand. Strong expectations were gradually turning into weak expectations. Downstream fund receipts were tight, and most traders were not very optimistic about the later stage. They basically maintained low inventory operations, and some stocks were slightly replenished before the holiday, with little fluctuation overall.

In terms of exports: In August 2023, China exported 433,900 tons of seamless tubes, a decrease of 0.1% month on month and 14.2% year-on-year; From January to August, China exported 3.88 million tons of seamless tubes, a year-on-year increase of 33%.

Market outlook

In summary, the favorable policies in early September gradually cooled down, and market merchants began to have a bearish attitude towards the economy and the steel environment, basically maintaining fast in, fast out, and following the market. Some tube factories had tentatively adjusted their factory prices with corresponding policies in the early stage, but the response from various consumer markets was mediocre. With the arrival of the Double Festival, the management factory may continue to make policy adjustments, and the market trading activity will relatively increase before and after the festival, driving up market prices. However, the overall demand in October will not change much, and the price lack momentum for continuous rise. Overall, it is expected that the price of seamless tubes in the seamless tube market will increase first and then decrease after the holiday.

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