According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic methanol market has surged. From August 21st to 25th (as of 15:00 in the afternoon), the average price of the East China port in the domestic methanol market increased from 2,448 RMB/ton to 2,467 RMB/ton. During the cycle, the price increased by 0.78%, with a month on month increase of 9.38% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.79%. Driven by demand, the methanol market continues to improve, with a significant increase in order volume and a relatively high market atmosphere, resulting in smooth shipments.
As of the close on August 25th, methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange have risen. The main methanol futures contract 2401 opened at 2,515 RMB/ton, with a maximum price of 2,540 RMB/ton and a minimum price of 2,502 RMB/ton. It closed at 2,531 RMB/ton in the late trading session, an increase of 3 RMB/ton or 0.12% compared to the previous trading day settlement. The trading volume was 1,007,835 lots, the position was 1,201,105 lots, and the daily increase was -4,263.
On the cost side, the overall supply and demand structure of the current chemical coal market is still showing a loose trend. In addition, as the "peak summer" enters the second half, the terminal daily consumption gradually shows a seasonal decline trend. The cost side of methanol is influenced by bearish factors.
On the demand side, downstream acetic acid: Anhui Huayi is undergoing maintenance, but the demand for acetic acid may increase if Thorpe and Guangxi Huayi restore to full capacity; Downstream MTBE: Lu Shenfa has a construction plan, and MTBE demand may increase; Below is formaldehyde: Liuyang Jinggang is recovering, and formaldehyde demand is increasing; Downstream chloride: Mainstream factories in Shandong are returning to normal, and demand for chloride may increase; The demand for dimethyl ether may not change significantly. The demand side for methanol is favorable and has a positive impact.
Supply side, Inner Mongolia Xinhang device maintenance; Yantai Wanhua, Shanxi Coking, Shanxi Junjie, Shanxi Jinxiang, Shanxi Orchid, and a set of units in Inner Mongolia have reduced production; Recovery of units of Yanchang middling coal, Shenglong Chemical, Xinjiang Xinye and middling coal Yuanxing. The overall recovery is greater than the loss, resulting in an increase in capacity utilization. The supply side of methanol is negatively affected.
In terms of external trading, as of the close on August 24th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $294.50- $296.50 per ton, up $10.25 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 69.00-71.00 cents per gallon; The FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 231.00-233.00 euros per ton, a decrease of 2 euros per ton.
In the future market forecast, short-term cost support is limited, supply changes are not significant, and demand is expected to increase. Methanol analysts from SunSirs predict that the domestic methanol market will tentatively rise.
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