Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, the market price of isobutyraldehyde fell sharply in June. The market price of isobutyraldehyde fell from 7,533.33 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month to 6,833.33 RMB/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 9.29%. The price at the end of the month was decreased by 11.64% year-on-year.

On June 27, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 33.16 points, down 1.19 points from the previous day, down 68.59% from the cycle's highest point of 105.58 (2021-09-16), and up 10.09% from the lowest point of 30.12 on October 7, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

Analysis review

From the supply side, the price of domestic isobutyraldehyde from mainstream manufacturers fell slightly in June, and the inventory of manufacturers was average. The ex factory price of Lihuayi’s isobutyraldehyde at the end of the month was 6,600 RMB/ton, which was 700 RMB/ton lower than that at the beginning of the month; The market price of isobutyraldehyde in Luxi Chemical at the end of the month was 6,900 RMB/ton, which was 600 RMB/ton lower than that at the beginning of the month; The ex factory price of isobutyraldehyde of Hualu Hengsheng at the end of the month was 7,000 RMB/ton, which was 800 RMB/ton lower than that at the beginning of the month.

From the cost side, the upstream propylene market of isobutyraldehyde fell first and then rose in June. The price of propylene first fell from 6,460.75 RMB/ton on June 1 to 6,155.75 RMB/ton on June 13, a decrease of 4.72%, and then rose to 6,513.25 RMB/ton on June 28, an increase of 5.81%. Overall, the price of propylene was increased by 0.81% in June, with a year-on-year decrease of 15.83% at the end of the month. The rising cost support was well, which had a positive impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde.

From the demand side, the downstream market of neopentyl glycol fell sharply in June. The market price of neopentyl glycol dropped from 10,433.33 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month to 9,500.00 RMB/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 8.95%. The price at the end of the month was decreased by 32.94% year-on-year. Downstream market fell sharply, and downstream manufacturers' purchasing enthusiasm for isobutyraldehyde weakened.

Market outlook

In early July, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may slightly fluctuate and decline. The upstream propylene market slightly increased, with average cost support. The downstream market of neopentyl glycol fell sharply, the downstream manufacturers' purchasing enthusiasm for isobutyraldehyde weakened, and the product trend declined under the contradiction between supply and demand. Isobutyraldehyde analysts from SunSirs believe that the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may suffer a slight shock and decline in the short term under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

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