Price trend

The domestic phenol market rebounded from the decline on June 9 and continued to rise. According to the market analysis system of SunSirs, as of June 21, the negotiated price of phenol in East China was 6,650 RMB/ton, and the average price in the national market was 6,787 RMB/ton, with a cumulative increase of 7.8%.

Analysis review

Pre holiday replenishment was intensive and downstream large depositors were bidding. Before the Dragon Boat Festival, the port inventory was relatively stable near 22,000 tons, but there were large economic operations in the downstream, which accelerated the spot circulation of the phenol market. In addition, the terminal replenishment was concentrated before the Dragon Boat Festival, so there was little pressure for traders to ship, and the market trading atmosphere was good.

The operating rate of the phenol factory was less than 70%, among which Shanghai Gaoqiao, Jiangsu Ruiheng, and Shanghai Xisa were all in a state of shutdown, and the operating rate of Shenghong Refining and Chemical was also slightly adjusted in mid June. Overall, the industry's operating rate was at a relatively low annual level.

The factory continued to suffer losses and hoped to raise the listing price. Judging from the profits of the phenol ketone factory, the phenol ketone enterprise was in a continuous state of loss. Since mid May, the theoretical value of the enterprise had entered a loss. As the market continued to bottom out, the loss had increased. As of the 9th, the market stopped falling and rebounded, and the enterprise had also adjusted its listing price accordingly. As of 21st, the enterprise was still on the brink of loss, and it is expected that loss will turn into profit after the holiday.

Market outlook

SunSirs believes that after the holiday, it is the end of the month, and there is not much pressure on contract volume shipments. However, it is cautious to follow up with high downstream prices after restocking for a period of time before the holiday. In addition, Jiangsu Ruiheng Phenol Ketone is expected to restart on the 25th, and the industry's operating rate is expected to further increase. However, the import resources are limited, and the overall impact is not significant. It is expected that the phenol market will be firm and rise slightly after the holiday, with negotiated prices in the East China market ranging from 6,650 to 6,700 RMB/ton.

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