Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price rose sharply this week. This week, the average price of domestic isobutyraldehyde mainstream market rose from 7,433.33 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week to 9,516.67 RMB/ton at the end of the week, up 28.03%. Weekend prices fell by 37.25% year-on-year.

On May 8th, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 52.79 points, an increase of 4.48 points from the previous day, a decrease of 50.00% from the cycle's highest point of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and an increase of 75.27% from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7th, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

Analysis review

From the supply side perspective, mainstream manufacturers of isobutyraldehyde saw a significant increase in their quotations this week, and the inventory was low. The factory quotation for Lihuayi isobutyraldehyde over the weekend was 8,000 RMB/ton, an increase of 700 RMB/ton compared to the beginning of the week; Hualu Hengsheng isobutyraldehyde factory quoted 12,500 RMB/ton over the weekend, an increase of 4,900 RMB/ton compared to the beginning of the week; The weekend distribution quotation for isobutyraldehyde produced by Luxi Chemical, distributed by Shandong Zhenkun, was 8,050 RMB/ton, an increase of 650 RMB/ton compared to the beginning of the week. Some manufacturers had shut down for maintenance, resulting in tight supply.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chains, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde had slightly declined this week, with prices dropping from 7,052.60 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week to 6,962.60 RMB/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 1.28%. Weekend prices fell by 20.89% year-on-year. The price of upstream raw material market fell slightly, and the cost support was insufficient. Affected by the supply and demand side, the price of isobutyraldehyde was negatively affected. From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol rose slightly, from 10,266.67 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week to 10,766.67 RMB/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 4.87%. The market situation of neopentyl glycol had slightly increased, and downstream demand had increased, which had a positive impact on isobutyraldehyde.

Market outlook

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in mid to early May may be mainly fluctuating and rising. The upstream propylene market has slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. The downstream market for neopentyl glycol has slightly increased, and downstream procurement enthusiasm has increased. Some manufacturers have shut down for maintenance, resulting in a tight circulation of isobutyraldehyde. SunSirs isobutyraldehyde analysts believe that in the short term, the isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and rises due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

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