Price trend

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the average price of domestic first grade white sugar at the beginning of the week was 6,481 RMB/ton, and the average price of domestic first grade white sugar at the end of the week was 6,490 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 0.14% and a price increase of 10.68% compared to the same period last year.

Analysis review

In the 2022/23 squeezing season, the final sugar production in Guangxi may be less than 5.3 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of over 800,000 tons, making it the second lowest in the past ten squeezing seasons. In terms of inventory, as of the end of March, Guangxi's sugar inventory was estimated to be around 2.6 million tons, compared to 3.7684 million tons in the same period last year, setting the lowest level in nearly ten crushing seasons.

The supply reduction is currently the main reason for the significant increase in global sugar prices. The global sugar supply and demand gap will further expand to 5.93 million tons, and the inventory consumption ratio is expected to be further reduced by 3.78%. The global sugar supply continues to be tight, and the international sugar price boom continues to be supported. In 2022/23, sugar production in major producing countries such as India and Thailand was generally lower than expected, and the global excess production and demand for the quarter significantly decreased. This month, the international sugar price forecast range was raised to 18.5-22.5 cents/pound.

Market outlook

India, the world's main supplier, has limited exports, coupled with insufficient supply from Thailand, China, and Mexico. It is expected that sugar prices will mainly fluctuate at high levels in the short term.

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