Price trend

As shown in the figure above, the copper price fluctuated and rose this week. By the end of this week, the spot copper price was 69,055 RMB/ton, up 1.46% from the price of 68,063.33 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week, and down 3.53% year on year.

Analysis review

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of SunSirs, the copper price had risen by 6 weeks and fallen by 5 in the past three months. The recent copper price had risen slightly.

Macro: US PPI in January was higher than expected, with a month-on-month increase of 0.7%, the largest increase since last June. Federal Reserve officials made a hawkish statement again, and Brad said that he would not rule out supporting the interest rate increase of 50 basis points in March.

Supply side: the South American ore side has frequent disturbances, and the spot copper concentrate TC79.38, with a decrease of 1.35 US dollars/ton on a weekly basis. In January 2023, the domestic refined copper output was 853300 tons, down 1.9% month-on-month and up 4.3% year-on-year

Demand side: the operating rate of refined copper rods this week was 62.51%, up 20.36 percentage points from the previous month; The operating rate of recycled copper rods was 50.63%, with a sharp increase of 39.24 percentage points in the circumferential ratio. Processing enterprises and downstream production had gradually recovered, and transactions had improved.

Market outlook

On the macro level, the US dollar index is partially restrained and supported by domestic demand. It is expected that copper prices will fluctuate to be stronger in the short term.

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