The current round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window was opened at 24:00 on January 17. Before the holiday, the domestic refined oil retail price will be reduced, and the crude oil change rate of the current round will start in a negative direction. During the cycle, the crude oil price will fall first and then rise, and the negative change rate will decrease, and the retail price of refined oil will be reduced.

In the current pricing cycle, the change rate of international crude oil started in a negative direction. As of January 17, the WTI crude oil futures market was closed. The closing price of the previous trading day was $79.86/barrel, and Brent crude oil futures was at $84.46/barrel. At the beginning of the current price adjustment cycle, crude oil prices fell first and then rose. The economic recession is expected to remain unchanged. The Federal Reserve's tightening policy is likely to continue. The continued tightening of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy increases the risk that the United States and major developed economies in the world will fall into recession, and then depresses fuel demand. Oil prices will be under pressure. The snowstorms in many parts of the United States have reduced the crude oil processing capacity of North America, resulting in the accumulation of crude oil, and then suppressed the oil price. In addition, the risk that the global economy will fall into recession in 2023 is increasing, and the inflation level of western developed economies remains high, and the price of crude oil is declining. In the later period, the US dollar continued to hover at a low level, and the expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates slowed down, which was good for oil prices on the macro level, and the increase in fuel demand in Asia promoted the recovery of crude oil prices. On the whole, the crude oil price decreased slightly during the cycle. As of January 17, the change rate of crude oil varieties was -3.22% on the 10th working day, and the zero price of gasoline for this round of refined oil was reduced 205 RMB/ton; The price of diesel oil was reduced 195 RMB/ton, equivalent to 92 # 0.16 RMB, 95 # 0.17 RMB, and 0 # 0.17 RMB per litre. This round of product oil retail price reduction was realized as scheduled.

Gasoline: the international crude oil market declined slightly during the current cycle, and the news was negative for the oil market. However, since January, with the approaching of the Spring Festival, the passenger volume of the national Spring Festival transport has gradually increased, the consumption of gasoline has continued to rise, and the price of gasoline has risen sharply. The refinery has increased the use of crude oil quota, the overall operating rate of the refinery has remained high, and the domestic product oil supply is normal. Before and after the Spring Festival, the number of road passengers sent showed a continuous upward trend, and the demand for gasoline was supported. It is expected that the price of gasoline will still rise in the later period.

Diesel: Although diesel fuel was started to stock in the lower reaches before the year, the demand for diesel fuel was poor, the construction of outdoor industrial and mining, infrastructure and other industries fell further in winter, the logistics industry was gradually shut down, and the actual demand for diesel fuel was not improved. In addition, affected by the bad oil market, the market price of diesel fuel remained weak and volatile.

In the future: China's demand is improving, boosting the oil market. In the long run, with the increase of OPEC+ production restriction policy or adjustment, the decline of Russian oil exports will play a role, supply and demand will seek to rebalance, and oil prices are still expected to return to a relatively high level. The operating rates of main refineries and local refineries are maintained, and the supply of refined oil is relatively normal. Although the price of gasoline has been adjusted after the price rise, the passenger volume has increased significantly before and after the Spring Festival, and it is expected that the trend of gasoline market will still have an upward trend; In terms of diesel, the construction of large industrial and mining infrastructure and other industries is limited, and the logistics and transportation are blocked. The diesel market demand support is still insufficient, and the short-term market rise is difficult.

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