According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the domestic methanol market fluctuated. From January 9 to 13 (as of 15:00 in the afternoon), the average price of the eastern China port in the domestic methanol market rose from 2,646 RMB/ton to 2,651 RMB/ton. During the period, the price rose 0.19%, fell 1.27% month-on-month, and rose 10.37% year-on-year. The price center of methanol market continues to fall. The inventory in East China is high, and the downstream multi-dimensional purchase is just in demand. The purchase price in some regions has risen. Although the freight has increased, the trade profit has decreased.
As of the close of January 13, methanol futures of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange rose. The main methanol futures contract 2305 opened at 2,628 RMB/ton, the highest price was 2,666 RMB/ton, the lowest price was 2,625 RMB/ton, and closed at 2,653 RMB/ton, up 22% or 0.84% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,308,739, the position was 1,162,272, and the daily increase was 23,892.
On the cost side, with the continuous release of advanced coal production capacity and the supplement of imported coal, the supply capacity of coal will continue to increase, and the short-term coal market may fluctuate slightly. The positive cost of methanol disappeared.
Demand side, downstream DME: Yongcheng Longyu plans to start up, and the demand for dimethyl ether may increase; Downstream acetic acid: Shanghai Huayi recovery, Henan Longyu products, increasing demand for acetic acid; Downstream formaldehyde: the demand for formaldehyde continues to decrease during the Spring Festival holiday. Demand for methanol is mixed.
On the supply side, the 600,000 tons/year equipment in Changwu, Shaanxi Province will be stopped on the evening of January 11; However, Chongqing Cabelle 850,000 t/a, Sichuan Jiuyuan 500,000 t/a, Jiangyou Wanli 150,000 t/a, Shanxi Coking 400,000 t/a and Sichuan Lutianhua 400,000 t/a units are planned to resume, with sufficient supply. The methanol supply side is negative.
In the external market, as of the close of January 12, the closing price of the CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was $384.00-385.00/ton, up $3/ton. The closing price of US Gulf methanol market is 97.75-98.75 cents/gallon; The closing price of the FOB Rotterdam methanol market was 302.75-303.75 euros/ton, down 2 euros/ton.
In the future, it is predicted that the cost of methanol will be supported or weakened, the supply will be abundant, and the demand will be reduced. SunSirs methanol analyst predicted that the domestic methanol market might continue to be weak.
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