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SunSirs: The Market Price of Refined Oil Fell sharply in October

November 02 2019 16:09:37     SunSirs (Selena)

  1. Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, in October, the market price of refined oil fell sharply, and the domestic gasoline price fell unilaterally. At the end of the month, the gasoline price was 6,260 RMB/ ton, 11.62% lower than 7,084 RMB/ ton at the beginning of the month; the domestic diesel price fell in shock, 6,353 RMB/ ton at the end of the month, 2.94% lower than 6,545 RMB/ ton at the beginning of the month.

  1. Market Analysis

Products: in October, the refined oil market gradually entered the off-season of demand, and the replenishment demand of refined oil market did not appear in time after the National Day holiday. In addition, in October, the international crude oil futures were weak, and the downstream market purchased on demand.

Industry chain: in the first ten days of October, the international crude oil market was affected by negative factors such as Saudi Arabia's crude oil production resumed beyond expectation, and Britain's negotiation of brexit was in deadlock, the crude oil price continued to decline; in the middle and last ten days of October, OPEC's oil producing countries expanded the scale of production reduction, as well as the number of active drilling platforms in the United States and the decline of crude oil inventory, which boosted the crude oil market price. In October, international crude oil fell first and then rose, with a slight fall overall. WTI crude oil price fell by 1.52% and Brent crude oil by 2.10%.

Market: in October, the price adjustment of domestic refined oil market experienced a reduction, with the prices of gasoline and diesel reduced 150 RMB/ ton and 145 RMB / ton respectively. The domestic refined oil market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. Specifically, in terms of gasoline, the gasoline market in the first ten days was dragged down by the fall of international oil prices and the demand for replenishment after the National Day holiday was weak; in the middle and late ten days, the demand for gasoline market did not improve significantly, and the sales pressure in the main business was high, and the positive shipping mentality dominated, and the focus of gasoline and diesel transactions was further explored. In terms of diesel, October is still the relative peak season of diesel demand, and oil companies such as infrastructure, mining and outdoor engineering still form a certain support for diesel. Although the international crude oil price was weak, the decline of diesel was temporarily suspended by the support of downstream rigid demand. In October, the diesel market fell only 2.94%, far less than the decline of 11.62% of the gasoline market.

  1. Market Forecast

According to the analysts of refined oil products of SunSirs, the international crude oil market has not yet come out of a clear trend, and the crude oil market price will remain volatile in November. However, the refined oil market lacks the support of downstream demand, and the price of domestic refined oil market is expected to decline in November.

 

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