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SunSirs: China's soybean meal returns to high in 2020

December 30 2020 09:20:11     SunSirs (Linda)

According to SunSirs data monitoring, the soybean meal market in 2020 will move forward and return to a historical high. The first half of the year experienced a wave of roller coaster market. Soybean meal continued to rise. The price rose to 3,300 yuan/ton, an increase of more than 15%. After the big increase, the market plunged back to 2,800 yuan/ton. In the second half of the year, soybean meal, supported by bullish factors, once again climbed to its peak, with the highest price breaking through the 3,300 yuan mark, an increase of 15.13% throughout the year.

According to the comparison of the three-year soybean meal year from 2018 to 2020, it can be seen that the price trend of soybean meal in 2020 has broken away from the low market in 2019, and the price is relatively close to the price in 2018, returning to a historical high.

At the highest point of the first roller coaster in 2020, March 30, the average price of soybean meal on that day in 2020 is 3335 yuan/ton; the average price of soybean meal on that day in 2019 is 2,522 yuan/ton; the average price of the day in 2018 is 3213 yuan/ton . The price difference between 2019 and 2018 and 2020 will reach about 700 yuan/ton.

At the second high point on December 25, the average price of soybean meal in 2020 is 3335 yuan/ton; the average price of soybean meal in 2019 is 2890 yuan/ton; the average price of soybean meal in 2018 is 2875 yuan/ton; the soybean meal market at the end of 2020 is again Rising, the price is more than 400 yuan/ton higher than in 2018 and 2019.

According to the monthly rise and fall of soybean meal from January to November in 2020, it can be seen that soybean meal will rise for 5 months and fall for 6 months in 2020. Soybean meal experienced a wave of roller coaster market throughout the year, with the biggest increase of over 15% in March. The market for several small roller coasters rose more than 6.6% in July. In the end, the trend of forging ahead was maintained, and the price continued to fluctuate. Near the end of the year, soybean meal still maintained a trend of rising. The price has returned to 3,300 yuan/ton. The overall increase in December has exceeded 4%, which is better than 2018 and 2019. too much.

The specific analysis of the market from January to December 2020 is as follows

In January, after the New Year's Day and the Spring Festival approached, terminal big pigs were collectively released for slaughter, feed demand continued to decline, soybean meal increased confidence in lack of confidence, and prices continued to fall. During the Spring Festival, most soybean oil plants were shut down for maintenance, and the oil plants were heavier in price and limited the drop in soybean meal. Soybean meal fell 2.07% overall in January.

In February, the USDA reported bullish data. Even soybean meal prices rose, futures markets improved, and spot markets were boosted. In addition, after the Spring Festival, soybean oil plants have resumed operations one after another, and the pressure on logistics and transportation has increased. Some terminal breeding companies still have replenishment needs, and soybean meal prices have ushered in an upward trend. Soybean meal rose 1.9% overall in February.

In March, the quantity of imported soybeans to Hong Kong decreased sharply, the supply of raw materials was tight, some domestic soybean oil plants were shut down for maintenance, terminal feed companies started to work one after another, rigid demand increased, soybean meal stocks were at a low level, and the foreign market US soybeans rose sharply. Support, the soybean meal market continued to rise sharply. Soybean meal rose 15.12% overall in March.

In April, the number of imported soybeans to Hong Kong increased, and the tight supply of raw soybeans was eased. Soybean oil plants resumed operation one after another. The rigid demand for terminal soybean meal weakened, the supply was loose, and the profits were exhausted. Soybean meal prices ushered in a sharp drop. Soybean meal fell 11.12% overall in April.

In May, due to the sharp drop in the price of live pigs and eggs, farmers sold slaughtered pigs, and the stock of live pigs dropped sharply. The terminal feed mills were cautious in purchasing feed ingredients and purchased on demand. Soybean meal delivery volume dropped and prices continued to fall. Soybean meal fell 4.99% overall in May.

In June, soybean meal stocks have exceeded 700,000 tons. In addition, the USDA report is mainly negative, and the external CBOT soybean futures market is weak. Pig prices have fallen, live pigs have been put out for slaughter, rigid demand for terminal feed has fallen, manufacturers have been cautious in purchasing, and soybean meal trading has fallen, and prices have remained weak. In June, soybean meal fell 0.81% overall.

In July, due to the three-month consecutive decline in soybean meal in the second quarter, market participants were more bullish about soybean meal. In July, soybean meal rose as expected, and the spot market rose sharply. Imported soybeans to Hong Kong have increased substantially, soy meal supply pressure remains, and the good growth rate of U.S. soybeans has restricted the increase in soybean meal. Soybean meal rose by 6.65% overall in July.

In August, the arrival of imported soybeans to Hong Kong continued to increase sharply. Soybean meal stocks were high and the supply was loose. Soybean meal ushered in a sharp decline. After the middle of the month, weather-themed hype reappeared, and soybean meal ushered in a rebound. Due to the early decline, the rebound was weak. . Soybean meal fell 0.82% overall in August.

In September, the weather theme of US soybeans reappeared. USDA reported a decline in the excellent and good rate. US soybeans in foreign markets were strong, soybean meal futures prices continued to rise, and spot prices rose sharply. Beginning in the middle of the month, the bullish factors have exhausted and soybean meal prices have ushered in a callback. In the long-short game, the soybean meal market went up and down. Soybean meal rose 4.5% overall in September.

In October, the overall import of soybeans in the first nine months reached more than 70 million tons, which was negatively suppressed. The soybean meal market ushered in a slight correction. After a short period of correction, it showed an upward trend again. US soybeans in the external market rose, coupled with higher prices of substitute corn, even soybean meal prices rose sharply. Soybean meal rose 5.34% overall in October.

In November, the demand for terminal feed weakened, and the quantity of imported raw material soybeans remained high, maintaining 8.69 million tons. Imported soybeans continued to arrive at the port. The operating rate of soybean oil plants rose and the supply eased. Soybean meal ushered in an oscillating decline. Soybean meal fell 11.44% overall in November.

In December, the Argentine workers' strike incident, with many news, strong soybean futures prices on the outer disk, approaching New Year's Day, increased logistics and transportation costs, soybean oil plants have stopped for maintenance, supported by multiple positive factors, the soybean meal market got rid of the downturn and returned to rising prices. Soybean meal rose more than 4% in December.


SunSirs agricultural product analysts believe that the overall performance of soybean meal in 2020 is outstanding. Although the number of imported soybeans is huge, soybean meal is still showing an upward trend under the support of external disks. Entering 2021, the subject of South American soybean weather hype is still going on, and the cost of logistics and transportation is still a point of rising soybean meal. It is expected that soybean meal will continue to rise in 2021, and the rise is expected.

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