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SunSirs: China's Aluminum Prices in October may Continue to Fluctuate on the Platform

October 09 2020 08:12:25     SunSirs (Linda)

1. List of aluminum ingot prices

According to SunSirs data, on September 30, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market was 14,696.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.09% from the average market price of 14,710 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (September 1); January 1) 14,553.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.98%; compared with the average market price during the year (March 24) 11,230 yuan/ton, an increase of 30.79%.

In September, the price of aluminum ingots first fell and then rose. At the end of the month, they fell for 2 consecutive days, falling below the previous shock range (the shock range was 14500-14800 yuan/ton), and then the price rebounded, and the overall trend is still running sideways.

2. Comparison of arguments for long and short electrolytic aluminum in September

Long argument:

1) In September, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum moved down from the previous month

According to statistics, as of September 24, the total domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory (including SHFE warehouse receipts) totaled 716,000 tons, compared with the total domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory (including SHFE warehouse receipts) totaled 755,000 tons on August 28, a decrease of 39,000 tons about.

Short argument:

1) Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity increased month-on-month in September

As of September 28, 2020, the national electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 42.461 million tons and the operating capacity was 38.556 million tons, an increase of 565,000 tons from the previous month. Among them, as of September 28, the national electrolytic aluminum newly invested capacity was 335,000 tons, resumed production capacity of 250,000 tons, and unexpectedly reduced production by 20,000 tons.

2) The price of raw alumina in September moved down from the previous month

Affected by the downward movement of overseas alumina prices in September, although the domestic upstream mines have a strong willingness to support prices, the overall domestic alumina market prices still fell slightly.

3. October aluminum price forecast

The downstream operating rate is relatively stable. In the later period, attention will be paid to the bottoming of the raw material alumina price and the downstream export situation. It is expected that the social inventory of aluminum ingots will enter a period of turbulence. In October, the price of aluminum ingots is likely to be weak and stable, and the price range is 13,500- 15,000 yuan/ton.

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