SunSirs: Aluminum Prices are Likely to Fluctuate around 20000 RMB/Ton in July

Aluminum prices fluctuated to be stronger in June 

Aluminum prices were stronger in June. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of June 30, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20,786.67 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.38% from the market average price of 20,303.33 RMB/ton on June 1.

The overseas aluminum prices remained firm in June, which was an important support for the upward trend of domestic aluminum prices. As of June 30th, aluminum prices maintained a strong external and weak internal pattern, and the domestic import window was relatively closed. The main trading macro factors in the market had relatively weakened the influence of fundamental factors.

There is a high probability of horizontal fluctuations in aluminum prices in July

From a fundamental perspective, in the off-season of traditional consumption in China, domestic demand was relatively weak, and aluminum prices were relatively high, resulting in insufficient downstream purchasing and receiving enthusiasm; On the supply side, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is unlikely to decrease during the southwest rainy season, but the probability of maintaining a weekly output of 844,000 tons was relatively high, and the supply was relatively stable. From a cost perspective, the stabilization of raw material alumina has led to short-term strength, which may provide relative support for aluminum prices in the near future. Low level sideways trend in social inventory: as of June 30th, the social inventory of aluminum ingots was relatively low and was in a sideways trend this week. As of June 30th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in mainstream consumption areas in China was 462,000 tons, a decrease of 46,000 tons from June 5th.

Macro variables in July

1. Changes in Federal Reserve policies and the implementation of equivalent tariffs in the United States.

2. Geopolitical factors, Middle East direction, and dynamic changes in the Russia Ukraine situation.

Market outlook

In summary, the market trading logic tends to be macro oriented, and may return to fundamental considerations in the later stage. As of June 30th, social inventory was low and sideways, and with off-season demand, the upward space for aluminum prices had narrowed, and the probability of sideways fluctuations had increased. It is expected that aluminum prices will fluctuate around 20,000 RMB/ton in July.

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