SunSirs: Aluminum Prices Rose Last Week, but the Upward Potential in the Future Market Will Narrow

Aluminum prices fluctuated horizontally 

Aluminum prices rose last week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of June 13, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market was 20,740 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.15% from the market average price of 20,303.33 RMB/ton on June 1.

Fundamental Overview

As of June 13th, it was in the off-season of demand, downstream operating rates were low, and the supply and demand of aluminum ingots were relatively weak.

On the supply side, the operational capacity of electrolytic aluminum had slightly increased, resulting in a slight increase in output. As of June 12th, the weekly production of mainstream domestic manufacturers remained around 84,3000 tons.

On the demand side, during the off-season of traditional consumption, the demand for building profiles, home appliances, and other products was relatively weak. Although new energy vehicles can drive some of the demand, the photovoltaic market had experienced a decline in production and overall demand growth was weak.

On the cost side, the price of alumina had fallen, and the cost center of electrolytic aluminum had shifted downwards, weakening the support for aluminum prices.

Social inventory: As of June 13th, the social inventory of aluminum ingots was relatively low and in a state of destocking. As of June 12th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in mainstream consumption areas in China was 46,3000 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons from the beginning of this week; A decrease of 45,000 tons compared to June 5th.

Reasons for the recent increase

During the export window period after tariff adjustment in June, the rush to export will provide some support for aluminum prices.

Market outlook

As of June 13th, the market trading logic tended to be macro oriented, and may later shift to fundamentals. With the expectation of a subsequent consumption off-season, the upward space for aluminum prices will narrow.

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