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SunSirs: China Coke Policy is Strengthened, Market Fluctuated to Prevent Capital Washing

June 12 2020 14:37:01     SunSirs (Selena)

Futures: Coke rose on Thursday, closing 1,955 (down 6.5), cutting more than 11,000 positions and reducing trading volume. At present, the blast furnace demand of steel plants is strong, and the coke inventory continues to drop; the coke enterprises in Shandong, Jiangsu and Anyang regions have limited production and de capacity policy fermentation, and the coke prices in many places have increased in the fifth round, and the futures follow the logic of increasing valuation and concussion. In the short term, the high price will be affected by the fluctuation of screw steel, or the strong vibration will continue. Pay attention to the fund sentiment, market supply and demand and the change of policy expectation, and prevent the fund washing.

Spot: the fifth round of increase in coke price by multi coke enterprises was 50 RMB/ ton. The spot prices of coke in Rizhao, Qingdao port and other places are strong: quasi first grade coke 1,850-1,900, first grade coke 1,950-2,000. Shandong's coal production and total coal consumption are planned to be reduced by 10%, and the market remains strong due to the influence of production restriction and capacity reduction policies of coke enterprises in Shandong, Jiangsu and Anyang. The overall inventory of coke enterprises in Shanxi Province is low and the shipment is smooth; the blast furnace operation rate of steel plants remains high and the demand is strong; the supply and demand pattern is tight, and the port inventory reduction supports the market price.

Strategy Analysis: COVID-19 is the main factor that affects the economic impact of the current financial and monetary easing and support. The restart of economy in Europe and the United States has boosted market demand expectations, and crude oil rebounded strongly. However, the epidemic situation in the United States and other places continued, and there are worries about expansion. We should strengthen macro-control at home and adopt strong and loose policies to stabilize economic growth. At present, the demand for coke continues to exceed expectations and the easing policy pushes up the expectation of spot price rise in the future. The logic of rising volatility in the valuation of futures is to prevent short-term correction and washing.

 

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