SunSirs: China Coking Coal Supply Continues to Tighten; Coke Market Prices Trend Strong

According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, the average price of quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke was 1,887 RMB/ton on June 18, 2026. With the supply of coking coal continuing to tighten, coking plants have been forced to limit production, and the increase in spot supply remains limited; consequently, the coke market is trending strong with rising prices.

Market Trading: June marks the National Work Safety Month; Shanxi maintains high-pressure safety inspections. Within the province, 56 coking coal mines—representing an annual capacity of 61.2 million tons—remain shut down. Capacity utilization at mines that have resumed operations has only recovered to around 70%, and the average daily output of clean coal has dropped by over 18% compared to earlier periods; supplies of prime coking coal and low-sulfur coal remain scarce. Coking coal prices at the source rose by 20–100 RMB/ton during the week. Coal price increases continue to outpace those of coke, significantly driving up raw material procurement costs for coking plants.

Operating Rates: The capacity utilization rate among a sample of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide stood at 74.39%, down 0.48 percentage points month-on-month, with an average daily coke output of 649,400 tons—a slight decline. The primary reasons are insufficient arrivals of high-quality coking coal and rising coal prices squeezing profit margins; most independent coking plants are seeing profits of only around 20 RMB per ton of coke. Some small and medium-sized plants are voluntarily reducing operating loads to preserve cash flow, limiting the increase in marketable coke supply. Operating rates at coking facilities integrated with steel mills remain stable, further reducing the volume of coke available for external circulation.

Downstream Demand: High temperatures and the rainy season in the south, combined with the traditional off-season for construction materials, have slowed infrastructure and real estate construction. Terminal trading volumes for rebar and wire rods have weakened month-on-month, and finished steel prices lack the momentum to rise in tandem. Successive rounds of coke price hikes continue to drive up steelmaking raw material costs. Consequently, the profitability rate of steel mills nationwide has fallen, with most long-process steel mills hovering near the break-even point; resistance to further coke price increases is intensifying, making it increasingly difficult to push through further hikes. Spot Prices: The spot market performed strongly this week; the seventh round of price hikes (50–55 RMB/tonne) was fully implemented across the board on June 15. On June 17, coke producers initiated an eighth round of increases—planned for implementation on June 20—raising prices for both dry-quenched and wet-quenched coke by 50–55 RMB/tonne. The market has now entered a phase of price negotiation between coke producers and steel mills.

Analysts at SunSirs observe a market pattern characterized by a strong spot market and fluctuating futures; while the eighth round of price hikes is likely to be partially implemented, full implementation faces resistance during negotiations. Prevailing spot price ranges (specifically for Tangshan first-grade dry-quenched coke) are 2,150–2,180 RMB/tonne, with a fluctuation range of 50–80 RMB/tonne. The price trend shifted from strong to stable: coke producers held firm on prices early in the week, but resistance from steel mills intensified later in the week, causing the central transaction price level to flatten slightly.

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