SunSirs: Eighth Round of Spot Price Hikes Fully Implemented; Major Steel Mills Raise Coke Prices in China

According to SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, the average price of quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke stood at 1,927 RMB/ton on June 23, 2026. The eighth round of spot price increases has been fully implemented, with major steel mills raising prices by 50 RMB/ton for wet-quenched coke and 55 RMB/ton for dry-quenched coke. While the spot price hikes have materialized, the futures market had already priced in pessimistic expectations for the off-season; consequently, the main coke futures contract plunged by over 3% in early trading today. This divergence between the weakening futures market and the rising spot market reflects growing market disagreement.

Market Trading: The impact of earlier safety inspections on coal mines in areas like Qinyuan, Shanxi, persists. Although some high-sulfur coking coal mines have gradually resumed operations, capacity recovery has reached only 40% of pre-shutdown levels. There is a severe shortage of additional high-quality, low-sulfur primary coking coal; domestic mine capacity utilization stands at just 71.2%, and mines continue to draw down inventories. On the import side, customs clearance for Mongolian coal remains stable, but the volume consists primarily of medium-sulfur 1/3 coking coal, offering limited supplementation of high-sulfur primary coking coal; thus, the structural shortage of coal supplies remains unresolved. Total coking coal inventories at coking plants stand at 10.6908 million tons (down 2.8% week-on-week), and the number of days of available raw material inventory continues to decline, constraining the ability of coking plants to sustain increased production.

Operating Rates: The capacity utilization rate across a sample of 230 independent coking plants nationwide is 74.39%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.48 percentage points, with average daily coke production at 649,400 tons—a slight decline. In major production regions like Shanxi and Hebei, some small- and medium-sized coking enterprises have voluntarily reduced operating loads by 10%–15% due to high raw material (coking coal) costs and thin profit margins, whereas large integrated coking plants are maintaining full production, resulting in a clear divergence in capacity utilization. Downstream Demand: Currently, the average daily hot metal output across sampled steel mills nationwide stands at 2.4093 million tonnes—a high for the year. Blast furnace (long-process) steel mills have not undertaken large-scale maintenance, maintaining a steady baseline demand for coke; conditions do not support a complete halt or significant reduction in procurement. Meanwhile, persistent heavy rainfall in the Yangtze River region has hindered construction activity, leading to sluggish spot market trading for rebar and structural steel. Tangshan steel billet prices have fallen below the 3,000 yuan mark, and prices for finished steel products continue to weaken. Compounding this, the implementation of the eighth round of coke price hikes has raised smelting costs, pushing most long-process steel mills toward the break-even point; some enterprises are seeing rebar gross margins drop below 100 yuan per tonne, intensifying the pressure of potential losses.

Spot Prices: Shanxi wet-quenched first-grade metallurgical coke: 1,810–1,860 yuan/tonne (up 50 yuan from the previous day); Hebei and Shandong dry-quenched coke: 1,980–2,030 yuan/tonne (up 55 yuan); Tianjin Port first-grade coke (FOB/flat-warehouse price): 1,820 yuan/tonne (up 2.8% week-on-week).

Coke analysts at SunSirs observe that during the July–August off-season downturn, end-user construction demand hits its annual low. With steel mills conducting minor, localized maintenance and hot metal output steadily declining—coupled with increased coking coal supplies following the resumption of production—the coke market is shifting from a state of tight balance to one of oversupply.

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