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SunSirs: Energy, Crude Oil Price Supported by Production Reduction, Fuel Oil Market Surged

May 19 2020 10:30:36     SunSirs (Selena)

Futures: fuel oil opened high Monday, closing 1,620 (up 30), with a total of more than 31,000 short positions and reduced trading volume. Europe and the United States gradually restart the economy, Saudi Arabia plans to increase the intensity of production reduction, the demand gradually picks up, the market sentiment has improved, and the low oil price gradually rebounds, the monthly gap narrowed, but we need to prevent COVID-19 from affecting the oil price double bottom. Last Friday night, the risk adverse funds significantly reduced positions. On the weekend, affected by the rise of crude oil in the outer market, the fuel oil jumped high in the morning of Monday and then fluctuated in a narrow range. There was still selling pressure near the key pressure level. The fuel oil will continue to surge in a short term or continue to fluctuate.

Strategic analysis: Currently, the newly confirmed cases in the world are still at a high level. The COVID-19 epidemic center has shifted from Europe and the United States to emerging market countries, and the newly increased cases in the United States remain at a high level. After the sharp rebound of oil price, the monthly difference narrowed, and the large increase of oil storage demand led to the rise of freight, supporting the forward price difference between the internal and external prices of the oil contracts. From July 3, the previous exchange increased the storage fee of futures fuel oil from 1.4 RMB/ton/day to 3 RMB/ton/day, and the contract price difference between the far and the month widened. Iron ore shipments from Brazil and Australia fell on a month on month basis, while the demand for fuel oil processing in India was strong. The worst stage of crude oil demand has passed, but it still needs to be recovered for a long time; if the accumulated reservoir pressure continues or the outbreak of the epidemic occurs twice, the oil price may encounter another sell-off pressure, and there is a risk of another bottom.


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