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SunSirs: Agriculture: 2019 White Granulated Sugar Market Analysis and Forecast

December 24 2019 09:59:03     SunSirs (Daisy)

1. Price Trend
According to data from SunSirs, the overall price shape of sugar in 2019 was "M". The price at the beginning of the year was 5,100.00 RMB/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 5,793.00 RMB/ton, an increase of 13.59%.

2. Market Analysis

The First Stage (January-April): the price of white sugar fluctuated and increased. Inner Mongolia's production and sales boomed. Up to the end of January, a total of 610,000 tons of sugar were produced and 456,000 tons of sugar was sold.

With the output increasing by nearly 170,000 tons year on year, industrial inventory slightly lower than the 157 thousand tons in the same period last year.

The data is favorable, and the price of sugar increased slightly. Beet sugar production pressure was released, of which 221,000 tons of sugar were sold in January, a year-on-year increase of 135,000 tons, significantly exceeding market expectations.

The Second Phase (May-June): With the 2018/2019 crushing season began, the sugar price swing downward. The price of sugar dominated contract future fell below the original cost line.

Then, supported by policy, the sugar price rose further in early April. Subsequently, international sugar prices fell and the amount of import rose significantly, putting pressure on domestic sugar prices.

The Third Stage (July-October): Rumors about that “the special protection tariffs on imported sugar will be cancelled" made sugar prices bottom again. However, after gaining support, the price of sugar started to oscillate upward.

The optimistic domestic sales situation and the significant decrease of foreign sugar imports have stimulated sugar prices.

And the international sugar prices have stopped falling and began to rebound, which has also boosted the popularity.

In early August, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicted that the global sugar supply in 2019/2020 would have a gap of 3.5 million tons, and that it would expand to nearly 6 million tons in 2020/2021.

The fourth stage (November-December): Up to mid-December, most sugar factories in Guangxi have been pressed and new sugars are listed on the market. With the supply gradually increasing, the spot transaction price has started to fall since November. But the current decline has eased somewhat.

International Market: Brazil's 2018/2019 crushing season is nearing completion, and the overall reduction in production has been determined. Therefore, the focus of global production has shifted to the main producing countries in the northern hemisphere.

In the previous crushing season, sugar production in India and Thailand increased by 50% and 46% respectively, which directly led to a sharp drop in raw sugar prices. At present, the market expects that the two countries will reduce their output in different degrees during the 2018/2019 season.

At present, the two countries have entered the stage of season production. With the development of production progress, the adjustment of output may affect the price of raw sugar.

In the crushing season, India’s Mabang has decided to reduce its output by about 4 million tons. Uttar Pradesh’s output is slightly reduced or unchanged. The national output may be 26 million to 28 million tons.

In the next pressing season, India’s national output is likely to return to 30 million tons. Indian sugar exports this season are about 3.5 million to 4 million tons. If the international sugar price rises above 14.5 cents per pound, it may exceed 4 million tons.

In Thailand, it has been pressed in December, and the suggested sugar cane price is 750 baht / ton, which is an increase of about 50 baht / ton. Up to the end of October, the cumulative export of Thai sugar dropped by 710,000 tons year-on-year, while the year-on-year decrease was 1.18 million tons.

3. Market Forecasting

SunSirs' analysts of sugar products believe that the current domestic sugar market has been slowly improving. The rebound since 2019 is not purely speculative. The domestic market has entered a peak period of sugar supply.

The conflict between supply and demand will not deepen. Last year, therefore, there was limited room for the decline in spot prices. It is expected that the main operating range of Zheng sugar prices will fluctuate between 5,500-6,500 RMB/ton in the future.

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