Futures:Iron ore reached a strong daily limit on Monday, closing at 630 (up 22.5), with a total reduction of 149,000 contracts and a decrease in trading volume. The flow of the top 20 funds: the bulls have concentrated their positions and reduced their concentration. The short positions have been concentrated and lightened, and some of them have increased their positions. Short-term economic and trade problems between China and the United States are expected to ease, while macro-pessimism is weakened. In September, Tangshan and other steel mills'production restriction policies are not as expected, iron ore demand is strong, the discount of long-term futures is large, and the discount of repair is strong and surging. Futures may come back under pressure after rushing to a high point, pay attention to the situation of capital selling above, and guard against dishwashing.
Spot:Port PB powder (wet tons) follows futures: Caofeidian Port 735, Qingdao Port 722, Rizhao Port 725; Platts 62% iron ore index $85.85 (expected to rise). Some steel billets in Tangshan factory price were 3,330 (up 20), and the turnover improved. Recently, the blast furnace productivity utilization rate and crude steel daily average output of steel mills have fallen slightly, the demand has remained high, the steel mill inventory is low, and the replenishment of storage has maintained normal rhythm; the port inventory has increased slightly, but the quantity of foreign ore shipments and arrivals has declined slightly, and the Port ore traders are cautious.
Brief strategy: Iron ore 2001 may have a high pressure-return callback, pay attention to the above situation of capital selling, and prevent washing. Band operation: Hold 20% of the fund position, and break below 625 to close the position. If the pressure on the 635-650 area is weaker, it can be more flat. If step back on the 610-620 area, you can try more. Short-term operation: holding 15% of the fund position, falling below 627 to close the position, if the pressure on the 635-650 area is weaker, it can be more flat. If step back on the 610-620 area, you can try more. Short-term key positions: 618, 636.
Strategic analysis:At present, the downward pressure on the economies of various countries is great, and the Sino-US trade problem aggravates the pessimistic expectation of economic weakening; the government strengthens macro-control, strictly control real estate, increase infrastructure, and protect the economy, the situation of steel demand is weak in the second half of the year, and the prospects for foreign mining to resume production are strengthened. In September, the policy of environmental protection and production restriction was implemented, but the demand for ore was better and supported, the spot discount of futures was larger, the expectation of repairing discount was stronger, and the operation of low-cost support area was more frequent. Emphasis should be paid to the expectation of short-term funds in key pressure area and the initiative to choose opportunities.
Tip: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the Nineteenth Central Committee. The Financial Stability and Development Committee of the State Council held its seventh meeting to study financial support for the real economy and deepen the reform of the financial system. Trump: I don't want to see negative interest rates in the United States. In September, Wu'an City implemented the plan of severely stopping and limiting production in special, key and general control areas respectively. Tangshan issued the "Tangshan Air Pollution Prevention and Control Program in September", the impact of environmental protection and production restriction is the same as in August. MOFCOM: China firmly opposes the escalation of the trade war and is willing to resolve differences through consultation and cooperation in a calm manner. Real estate development loans will be tightened from now on, and the scale may not exceed the quota at the end of March. Anyang City implements environmental protection and production control.from 8.30 to 9.16.