According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the natural rubber commodity index on August 11 was 35.91, down 0.12 points from yesterday, down 64.09% from the highest point 100.00 in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 31.63% from the lowest point 27.28 on April 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)
In the first ten days of August, the market of domestic natural rubber (standard 1) in the East China market showed a continuous small fluctuation trend: on the 1st, the mainstream price in the East China market was about 12,240 RMB/ ton, and on the 10th, the main price was 12,150 RMB/ ton, a decrease of 0.74%. Among them, the highest price point in the first ten days was 12,304 RMB/ ton on the 9th, and the lowest point was 12,080 RMB/ ton on August 4-7, with a maximum amplitude of 1.85%. At the beginning of this month, under the influence of the public health incident in Hainan, the futures rose rapidly in the short term, but there was little demand. The external quotation of spot traders was relatively calm, and the market transaction price fluctuated slightly.
Macro: on August 10, international crude oil futures closed higher. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $91.93/barrel, up US $1.43 or 1.6%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $97.40/barrel, up US $1.09 or 1.1%. According to the data of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), although the crude oil inventory increased significantly last week, the US gasoline inventory decreased significantly; In addition, the CPI data of the United States in July showed that inflation was lower than expected and risk appetite improved, boosting the upward trend of oil prices.
Industrial analysis: on the macro level, the international crude oil rebounded, and China's macroeconomic data were good. On the supply side, it is currently in the peak season of natural rubber supply at home and abroad. In the near future, it is necessary to focus on the impact of Hainan public health events and rainfall on the local rubber industry. At present, the impact is relatively limited. On the demand side, the operating rate of downstream tire manufacturers is still around 60-70%; At present, it is in the off-season of the lower consumption season and the tire inventory is still high, the demand has not increased, and the manufacturers' purchasing enthusiasm is not high. On the import and export side, the data of the General Administration of Customs of China on July 7 showed that in July 2022, China imported 580,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), an increase of 10.5% over 525,000 tons in the same period of 2021. From January to July, China imported 3.975 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), an increase of 4.1% over 3.819 million tons in the same period of 2021.
Market forecast: the industry generally has a good consumption expectation for the future gold, silver and ten. Considering the recent downstream tire construction and purchasing demand, it is expected that the natural rubberin China will still maintain the trend of interval consolidation in the short term.
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