According to the price data monitoring of SunSirs, on November 25, the average ex factory price of 1.4D*38mm polyester staple fiber in the domestic market was 6,860RMB/ton, down 5.04% (364RMB/ton) month on month; down 26.92% (2,526RMB/ton) year on year. The quotations of large factories are concentrated on 6,800-7,000RMB/ton, and the actual transaction discount is about 200-400RMB/ton.
Oil prices fluctuated greatly in the past week, which is the result of the combination of macroeconomic, geopolitical and supply-demand factors. First of all, the most direct driving force to push up oil price is Saudi Aramco's IPO plan. Oil price is the key factor for Saudi Aramco to raise funds for listing. They don't want the oil price to fall and want to improve the oil price to a favorable situation. Therefore, even Kyoto said it would cooperate with Saudi Arabia to maintain the balance of the oil market. OPEC has been increasing its efforts to reduce production. In the first half of 2019, OPEC's oil producing countries cut production by 125% on average, and overfulfilled the task of production reduction. Since then, each month's production reduction rate has been between 130% and 200%. Generally speaking, OPEC + has been carrying out the task of production reduction, slowing down the short-term supply pressure, but it is far from enough for the crude oil market in the long term.
Today, TAM rose 16, or 0.33%, compared with the previous trading day, and the period price climbed to close at 4,808. The 2 million ton Hainan plant of Yisheng at the supply end is planned to be shut down from November 18 to 24, and the 1.5 million ton plant of Jiaxing Petrochemical is planned to be shut down on November 12, and it is planned to be overhauled for two weeks. The industry's operating rate is 92%. With the introduction of new capacity, the tight supply pattern will gradually ease. The average ex factory price of downstream 32S polyester yarn in Shandong Province is 14,440RMB/ton. In the past month, the yarn price has hardly fluctuated. The textile enterprises continue to de stock, and the inventory is maintained for one month.
To summarize, analysts from SunSirs believe that the upstream crude oil will be in a situation of overcapacity for a long time, so Saudi Arabia and OPEC will continue to increase production reduction, and the oil price will remain at a high level; PTA supply side still exists in the stage of new capacity input, and the cost side will gradually increase. The downstream yarn is not warm or hot, the manufacturer can use it as needed, and the stock is low. Polyester staple fiber prices are expected to rise this week.
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