Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of polyester staple fiber fell last week. As of June 29th, the average market price of domestic polyester staple fiber (1.4D * 38mm) was 6,736 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.75% from the beginning of the week.

Analysis review

The expected ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran has reduced the risk of oil supply disruptions in the Middle East. On June 24th, international crude oil futures plummeted to a two-week low. As of June 26th, the settlement price of the August WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $65.24 per barrel, and the settlement price of the August Brent crude oil futures contract was $67.73 per barrel.

The PTA market followed the decline of crude oil, and the focus of the domestic PTA spot market shifted downwards. As of June 29th, the average price of PTA market in East China was 5,084 RMB/ton, with a weekly decline of 3.73%. In terms of supply, Yishengda's 3.6 million ton production capacity has decreased by 50%, and Hengli Petrochemical's 2.2 million ton maintenance has led to a slight contraction in domestic supply. The overall construction rate of the industry was around 78%. The new production capacity of Honggang Petrochemical, 2.5 million tons, was put into operation on June 7th, with an increase in production capacity.

The textile industry entered the traditional off-season, with demand showing signs of fatigue, and downstream polyester yarn factories experiencing a decline in operating rates, leading to cautious procurement of raw materials. The number of orders from terminal textile enterprises was insufficient, and new orders were still mostly small autumn and winter sample orders. Entering July, the weather is hot, and the weaving operation rate of textile enterprises will further decrease. At the same time, export orders will be suppressed by overseas trade policies, so the demand side is expected to weaken.

Market outlook

SunSirs’ analysts believe that the recent geopolitical situation continues to affect international oil prices, and the international oil market is expected to remain volatile in the short term. The supply of raw materials PX and PTA has increased, coupled with expectations of downstream supply and demand weakening. It is expected that in the short term, the price of polyester staple fiber will still mainly follow the cost operation.

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