Price trend

Under the strong support of cost, the price center of polyester staple fiber increased in June. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of June 16th, the average market price of domestic polyester staple fiber (1.4D * 38mm) was 6,646 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.07% from the beginning of the month.

Analysis review

The international crude oil market has experienced a surge in prices due to the escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel, escalating regional tensions, and heightened concerns about oil supply disruptions. As of June 13th, the settlement price of the July WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $72.98 per barrel, and the settlement price of the August Brent crude oil futures contract was $74.23 per barrel.

The domestic PTA spot market followed the rise of crude oil, with the average PTA market price in East China at 5,008 RMB/ton as of June 16th, an increase of 0.86% from the beginning of the month. But mainstream domestic producers have restarted their facilities, and Honggang Petrochemical's 2.5 million ton annual production facility has been put into operation, resulting in a significant increase in supply and an industry operating rate of around 83%. The peak of PTA plant maintenance had passed, and new production capacity was being tested and put into operation to curb PTA growth.

The performance of domestic and foreign trade orders at the terminal was scarce, with a small number of orders being mainly sampled in autumn and winter. There was still uncertainty about future orders, and the recovery speed was significantly slower than expected. The weaving operation rate was still at a low level, and there may be downward risks in the weaving industry at the end of the month. Therefore, the inventory of short fibers once again accumulated to a certain extent, and prices still faced significant pressure.

Market outlook

SunSirs’ analysts believe that international oil prices will continue to rise in the short term, but the restart of PX and PTA maintenance facilities, coupled with the production of new facilities, will increase supply. In addition, with the arrival of the seasonal off-season at the terminal, demand performance is weak, and there is an expectation of weakened supply and demand. It is expected that the price of polyester staple fiber will remain volatile and warmer in the short term.

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