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SunSirs: Positive Support on the Cost Side still Exists, Short-Term PTA Price will Remain Warm
February 16 2022 08:40:59SunSirs(Linda)

On February 15, the domestic PTA market fell slightly. The average market price in East China was 5,685 yuan/ton, down 0.12% from the previous trading day and up 40.98% year-on-year. The main force of PTA futures 2205 closed at 5696, down 24, or 0.42%.

​In terms of supply, the two sets of Yisheng New Materials totaling 6.6 million tons were operated at a 50% reduction. Yisheng Ningbo’s 2 million tons/year PTA plant was shut down for maintenance on February 10, and Zhongtai Petrochemical's 1.2 million tons PTA plant was opened in early February. About 80% of the work started. Yisheng Dalian's 2.25 million-ton PTA plant is scheduled to be overhauled in early March. The specific situation is to be determined. The current operating rate of the PTA industry has dropped to around 80%.

Oil prices rose sharply for two consecutive trading days, hitting a new high in more than seven years, mainly due to the escalation of tensions between Russia and Ukraine; in addition, the actual increase in OPEC+ production fell short of the target, adding to the concern of tight global energy supply. On February 14, international crude oil futures prices rose sharply. The settlement price of the main U.S. WTI crude oil futures contract was reported at US$95.46 per barrel, an increase of US$2.36 or 2.5%, and the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was reported at US$96.48 per barrel, an increase of US$2.04 or 2.2%.

Since the seventh day of the first lunar month, mainstream weaving factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have resumed work one after another, and the operating rate of looms has risen to over 35.35%. However, terminal manufacturers have a strong wait-and-see mood, lack enthusiasm for raw material procurement, use more inventory, and focus on inquiries, and the market is still in a recovery period. In addition, the epidemic situation in many places is severe, especially in Suzhou and surrounding areas. As a textile powerhouse, logistics will also be affected.

The slow resumption of production in terminal weaving and the pressure on the demand side of PTA have led to insufficient upward momentum in prices. Although China Textile City and Textile City have opened successively, the logistics has not been fully recovered, and the transaction volume is relatively small. It is expected that it will gradually become clear after the Lantern Festival. The favorable support on the cost side still exists, restraining the decline of PTA. It is expected that the price of PTA will still fluctuate and run warm in the short term.

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