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SunSirs: Toluene Fluctuated within a Narrow Range This Week (June 28-July 4)
July 06 2021 14:27:51SunSirs(John)

Price trend

According to data from SunSirs’ bulk list, the price of toluene first fell and then rose this week, and the price fluctuated within a narrow range. On June 27, the price of toluene was 5,781 RMB/ton; On this Sunday (July 4), the price was 5,800.2 RMB/ton, an increase of 19.2 RMB/ton or 0.33% from last week; an increase of 66.67% from the same period last year.

Analysis review

Crude oil prices remained high and supported relatively well. The East China market held a wait-and-see attitude; prices in South China rose slightly due to a reduction in supply. However, the overall demand in the toluene market remained weak. Due to the limited automobile transportation in the northern region during the week, market transactions decreased, and prices remained weak and fluctuated. In terms of external disks, as of July 2, South Korea's imported toluene price was 743 US dollars/ton, which was an increase of 10 US dollars/ton, or 1.36% compared with June 25.

In terms of crude oil, the market was optimistic about the prospects for the recovery of crude oil demand. U.S. crude oil inventories continued to decline. OPEC+ may start to increase production in August, but there was still no agreement on the latest policy, and international oil prices had been mixed. Compared with June 25, this week Brent fell by 0.01 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.01%; WTI rose by 1.11 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 1.5%.

Downstream: In terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China remained stable this week, with domestically produced goods at 13,866.67 RMB/ton, an increase of 31.23% over the same period last year.

In the PX market, the domestic PX price rose sharply this week, with a price of 7,100 RMB/ton, an increase of 9.23% from last week and a year-on-year increase of 47.92%. As of July 2nd, the closing price in Asia was 903-905 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 921-923 US dollars/ton CFR China.

Market outlook

Toluene analysts of the Business Society Chemical Branch believe that: First of all, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC+ production cuts, the total number of US oil rigs, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, look at the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and China and the United States, the progress of the new crown vaccine, the dollar index and the stock market linkage.

The support of crude oil to toluene prices still exists; the better downstream PX market may have a certain driving effect on the toluene market. On the whole, the resumption of Northern Motor Transport will support the toluene market to some extent, and the price may rise. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external disk trends, toluene plant overhaul dynamics, port toluene inventory and downstream demand (gasoline blending market) on toluene prices.

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