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SunSirs: Natural Rubber Fell 14% unilaterally in March, and Crude Oil and New Rubber Output had a Big Impact
April 02 2021 11:26:41SunSirs(Selena)

According to the commodity index system of SunSirs, the natural rubber commodity index on March 31 was 39.00, down 1.37 points from the previous day, down 61.00% from the highest point of 100.00 points (2011-09-01), and up 42.96% from the lowest point of 27.28 points on April 2, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

According to the data monitoring of SunSirs, on March 1, 2021, the price of domestic natural rubber latex was 15,375 yuan / ton, and on March 31, the price of rubber was 13,150 yuan / ton, with a downward range of 14.475%.

Judging from the output of new rubber, a small number of main natural rubber producing areas in China have been cut, and a large number of domestic new rubber may be on the market in the middle and late April. Although the main production areas in Southeast Asia still stop cutting season, it is expected that new rubber will be cut in May, and the natural rubber market will weaken obviously.

From the perspective of downstream demand, the purchasing situation of downstream factories has improved in the near future. From the perspective of tire enterprises, data statistics show that in the third week of March, as of March 25, the starting load of all steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong Province was 78.03%, up 0.34% from the previous week, up 13.74% from the same period last year; the starting load of semi steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 73.01%, up 0.35% from the previous week, up 10.62% from the same period last year. From the perspective of automobile data, the average daily retail sales of passenger car market in the third week of March reached 46,000 units, which was 5% higher than that in the third week of March 2019, and the performance was relatively good; the first three weeks of March this year were basically the same as that in 2019. However, compared with the first three weeks of January, the trend is relatively weak. The haze and sandstorm weather in North China in mid March is expected to stimulate sales growth again. However, recently, the global automobile industry chain has been affected due to the lack of core. However, some automobile enterprises in China have started to develop chips independently. According to the prediction of market research institutions, the shortage of automobile chips will be alleviated in the second half of 2021. During this period, the production of automobile enterprises will be affected, and the demand for raw rubber will also be affected.

From the aspect of inventory, the total inventory of the previous period was 175,902 tons (+900) as of March 26, and the volume of futures warehouse receipts was 170,920 tons (+300). As of March 21, the inventory of Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to drop slightly, but the inventory outside the zone picked up, mainly due to the slow down of delivery after the downstream took the goods the week before. Due to less overseas production and higher operation rate of domestic tire factories, it is expected that the later period of going to the warehouse can still be maintained.

With regard to the future market, SunSirs believes that in the short term, the market has a strong worry about the new rubber market after cutting, which has a greater impact on the market. At the same time, the severe epidemic prevention situation in foreign countries, weak demand and the shutdown caused by the lack of "core" of automobile enterprises are also affected by multiple factors, such as the transmission factor of crude oil affected by more interference factors, the trend of shock, and the supporting role of natural rubber Insufficient, weak market. In the short term, we are still wary of the transmission effect of the substantial change of crude oil on natural rubber. From the middle and late of next month, we are wary of the significant impact of the new rubber on the market.

 

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