Disk situation: C2105 reported the highest of 2792, the lowest of 2762, and the closing of 2763, -0.50% from the previous trading day; volume of 470821; position 765137, -5, basis +237; C5-9 month spread +40. CS2105 reported a highest of 3322, a lowest of 3258, and a closing of 3268, -0.64% compared to the previous trading day; trading volume was 140222, holding positions 127178, -4265, basis +332; CS5-9 month spread +96.
News: 1. The U.S. Department of Agriculture released a report on Tuesday that private exporters reported that they had sold 175,000 tons of corn to Japan for delivery in the 2021/22 season. 2. According to analysts, during the 2021 growing season, corn insurance prices hit a seven-year high, and soybean insurance prices hit an eight-year high, which boosted expectations that the total sown area of soybeans and corn will hit a record high.
Spot market: The purchase price of new grain with 15% moisture content in Jinzhou Port is 2930-3000 yuan/ton, and the flat price is 3010-3030 yuan/ton. Starch Hebei quoted 3760; Jilin quoted 3600; Shandong quoted 3780. (Unit: Yuan/Ton)
Warehouse receipts: 77049 pieces of corn warehouse receipts, +300 pieces; 2749 pieces of corn starch warehouse receipts, 0 pieces.
Position analysis: The top 20 corn C2105 contract mainstream funds reported 530,460 long positions and -31 hands, and short positions reported 591,702 hands and +525 hands. Corn starch CS2105 contract mainstream funds top 20 long positions reported 82,748 hands, -2220 hands, short positions reported 84,335 hands, +674 hands.
Summary: The hot and dry weather in Argentina is not conducive to the growth of corn. In addition, the planting rate of the second crop of corn in Brazil is 32%, which is far behind the same period last year by 63%. It is expected that the output may decrease. . Domestically, the surplus grains in the hands of growers in the main producing areas are very limited, and the main grain traders are reluctant to sell them. Deep processing companies just need to replenish their warehouses. In addition, the logistics and transportation conditions are limited in rain and snow weather, and the rate of corn production is slow. Processing companies are still continuing With the increase in price purchases, the spot corn price was basically stable, and some of them were strong, which supported the futures price. However, it is reported that 1,426 tons of Heilongjiang temporary storage corn will be put on March 4, which will fill the market supply. In terms of demand, the maximum inventory life cycle of processing companies in the Northeast production area has been extended to April. At the same time, the African swine fever epidemic situation has risen around the Spring Festival, and the pig stock has declined for two consecutive months from January to February, and downstream feed enterprises have replaced more grains, and the replacement ratio has also been increasing. In general, it is expected that the short-term will maintain a high level of shock and order, and pay attention to the next policy news guidance. Corn 2105 contract took part in intraday trading.
With the recovery of logistics, after the Lantern Festival, some downstream starch enterprises have replenishment needs, and some enterprises in Shandong have not yet started up, and have been consuming starch stocks, reducing the stocks by 27,700 tons last week, a decrease of 3.46%. In addition to the limited conditions of logistics and transportation in rainy and snowy weather, the rate of increase in corn volume is slow, deep processing companies are still purchasing infinitely increasing prices, and the high cost pressure makes corn starch companies maintain a high price mentality, and the overall spot price will continue to be maintained. High-level operation provides support to the futures market. However, with the rapid recovery of the corn starch industry operating rate in the later period, most companies will resume full-production operation in March, the market supply has increased significantly, and the inventory itself is at a relatively high level, coupled with the slow recovery of downstream demand, and insufficient efforts to purchase high prices , It is expected that cornstarch will oscillate with corn, and cornstarch 2105 contract will participate in the intraday trading.
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