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Shanghai Aluminum Rose Sharply, Standing above the 10,000 Mark
November 12 2020 09:00:23Ruida Futures(Linda)

Internal and external trends: On Wednesday, the LME aluminum rushed to a higher level. As of 15:00 Beijing time, the three-month LME aluminum price was $1,916/ton, a daily increase of 0.26%. Shanghai Aluminum's main 2012 contract rose sharply, with a daily maximum of 15,190 yuan/ton, a minimum of 14,875 yuan/ton, and closing at 15,180 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.57% from the previous trading day's closing; the trading volume was 124,525 hands, a daily decrease of 17,194 hands; positions held 155070 hands , An increase of 15,611 hands each day. Basis is 170 yuan/ton; Shanghai Aluminum's price difference between 2012 and February is 230 yuan/ton.

Market focus: (1) The cumulative number of confirmed cases in the United States exceeds 10.55 million, with more than 133,000 new cases in a single day. American infectious disease expert Fauci said that the first batch of vaccinations may be carried out at the end of November or December. (2) EU negotiators have reached an agreement on the EU's long-term spending plan, which is closer to finalizing the landmark 1.8 trillion euro (2 trillion US dollars) budget and stimulus agreement.

Spot analysis: On November 11, SMM spot A00 aluminum reported 15,330-15,370 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15,350 yuan/ton, and a daily increase of 170 yuan/ton. Changjiang Nonferrous Metals reported that the enthusiasm of large buyers to receive goods was average, and the downstream was afraid of high and rigid demand, and the activity of transactions declined.

Warehouse receipts inventory: On Wednesday, Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 108,396 tons, an increase of 352 tons per day; on November 10, LME aluminum inventory was 1,425,450 tons, a daily decrease of 6,125 tons, a 7-day decline.

Main positions: The top 20 long positions of Shanghai Aluminum's 2012 contract were 83,113 hands, with a daily increase of 10,513 hands and a short position of 99,748 hands, a daily increase of 8,299 hands, a net short position of 16,635 hands, a daily decrease of 2,214 hands, both long and short positions increased, and headroom decreased.

Market research and judgment: Shanghai Aluminum's main force 2012 rose sharply on November 11. The U.S. epidemic continues to worsen, and expectations of vaccine deployment have boosted market risk sentiment, coupled with the progress of the EU's stimulus plan, making the US dollar index weaker. The domestic spot stocks of electrolytic aluminum continued to deplete and fell to a new low since July. The tight supply has made the market more willing to stand up, and aluminum prices have performed relatively strongly. However, the price of alumina continues to weaken and the profit of electrolytic aluminum production is high, which will stimulate the production of aluminum plants to accelerate the production; and the downstream aluminum bar processing fee will continue to decline, which will also inhibit the recovery of processing enterprises' operating rate, which will pose a resistance to aluminum prices. Technically, Shanghai Aluminum’s main 2012 contract has heavy volume at Masukura Station on the 5,000 mark, and the bullish atmosphere is heavier, and it is expected to be strong in the short-term. In terms of operation, it is recommended to do more light storage near 15,000 yuan/ton and stop loss at 14,880 yuan/ton.

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