According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, last week's gasoline and diesel prices rose and fell with each other and remained stable as a whole. The domestic gasoline price was 4,994 RMB/ ton, down 0.17% compared with last week's gasoline price; the domestic diesel price was 5,139 RMB/ ton, down 1.06% compared with last week's diesel price.

Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: crude oil futures fell last week, and the operating rate of domestic refining and chemical plants had increased gradually previously. The market price of refined oil was weak in action, and the market price of refined oil remained stable last week.

Industry chain: on April 9, the OPEC+ special meeting came to an end. Its production reduction amount was lower than the market expectation. The market generally did not buy the result, and was boosted by the news of production reduction earlier. The market has digested the benefit in advance. From the perspective of demand, at present, the global epidemic of COVID-19 is still in the stage of rapid spread. Market experts generally believe that it may last for a long time in the later period. Some institutions predict that the decline of crude oil demand in April will exceed 20 million barrels/ day, or even 30 million barrels. As of 15:00 on April 10, WTI crude oil price was at $23.5/ barrel, and WTI crude oil futures fell 10.11% last week.

Market: on the demand side of gasoline, during the Qingming holiday, the number of driving trips by residents increased, and the downstream consumption of gasoline was strong, which to some extent supported the wholesale gasoline market. Traders and downstream customers take more goods after the festival. In terms of diesel, engineering, infrastructure, logistics and other industries continued to provide rigid demand support. After the Qingming Festival, traders and downstream customers replenish more goods, and the overall market turnover is acceptable. However, in the near future, the operating rate of refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation was 67.18%, up 4.54% month on month, and the international crude oil price fell by more than 10%. Last week, the market price of refined oil remained stable.

Market Forecast

The analyst of refined oil products of SunSirs believes that, the output reduction of OPEC+ meeting is not as strong as expected, and the demand for crude oil is expected to drop sharply, so the crude oil market has no power to act, which is subject to the low price of crude oil. It is expected that the market price of refined oil will be stable in the near future, with little possibility of rising.

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