Price trend

According to monitoring data from SunSirs, as of March 20, 2023, the reference price for domestic butyraldehyde was 8,175 RMB/ton. Compared with March 1 (reference price for butyraldehyde was 8,450 RMB/ton), the price decreased by 275 RMB/ton, a decrease of 3.25%.

Analysis review

As of March 20th, domestic chemical giant Luxi Chemical had adjusted the price of n-butanal eight times this month, with March 6th marking a significant daily decrease of 400 RMB/ton.

Why butyraldehyde had fallen repeatedly still requires analysis from multiple sources.

In terms of raw material propylene: In early March, due to the failure and shutdown of two large propane dehydrogenation units in Shandong, manufacturers outsourced a large amount of raw material propylene, leading to an increase in propylene prices. As propylene prices rose to a high level, downstream factories faced increased cost pressure and chose to purchase cautiously. Demand slowed down, and the supply-demand game led to a shortage of propylene manufacturers in shipping, resulting in a lower price center.

Downstream n-butanol: In March, the n-butanol market was weak and weakened, with sufficient spot supply in the market. Some factories voluntarily offered to sell due to increased inventory, controlling inventory levels and slowing down demand for upstream n-butanal.

In terms of downstream trimethylolpropane: After the holiday, the production of trimethylolpropane had gradually increased, and the recovery on the demand side was very limited. Except for some downstream factories that made appropriate replenishment after the holiday, most downstream enterprises had slow recovery in production and still had inventory raw materials being digested. The pressure on the shipment of trimethylolpropane had increased, and prices had continued to decline, resulting in a sluggish intention to purchase upstream butyraldehyde.

Market outlook

According to data analysts from SunSirs, the negative impact of both supply and demand had led to a sustained decline in the price of n-butanal. It is expected that the price of n-butanal will continue to be weakly consolidated in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.

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