The current domestic refined oil price adjustment window opened at 24:00 on February 19, and the retail price of refined oil may not be adjusted. The retail price in 2024 has gone through two increases and one decrease, and the crude oil market has experienced a first decline and then an increase during the cycle. The negative rate of change has narrowed, and the adjustment of refined oil retail price in 2024 will be shelved for the first time.
Entering this pricing cycle, the international oil price trend first fell and then rose. As of the 16th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $78.46 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $83.47 per barrel. On the one hand, the tense geopolitical situation has an impact, and the instability of the Middle East situation still exists. The market is concerned about supply issues, and crude oil prices are supported and rising. On the other hand, the fulfillment rate of OPEC's production reduction plan for the first quarter of 2024 in January has exceeded 33%. In addition, the IEA has significantly reduced the global crude oil demand growth rate in 2024 to only 1.2 million barrels per day. Positive factors during the Spring Festival holiday supported the rise of international oil prices, and the negative rate of crude oil change during the cycle has been continuously narrowing. As of the 19th, the change rate of crude oil varieties on the 10th working day is -0.10%, and it is expected to be reduced by 5 RMB/ton. The price adjustment does not exceed the red line of 50 RMB/ton. The retail price of refined oil products may not be adjusted in this round.
In terms of gasoline: It is currently during the Spring Festival holiday, and gasoline demand is guaranteed. In terms of supply, there is not much change in the operating rate of Shandong refining, with the operating rate of Shandong refining maintaining around 68%; Before the holiday, gasoline merchants increased their stocking, gasoline procurement was active, demand was strong, gasoline inventories continued to decrease, and gasoline market prices rose.
In terms of diesel: The supply of diesel is normal, while the price of crude oil on the cost side is rising. The support on the cost side still exists, but the demand for diesel is not good. The Chinese New Year holiday, combined with the impact of low temperature, rain and snow weather, has brought about a cold demand for diesel in the infrastructure industry. Outdoor infrastructure, engineering and other construction projects have declined, and the diesel market is sluggish.
Looking at the future: Currently, there is still a long short game for crude oil, and there is pressure on global crude oil demand; However, the geopolitical tension poses certain risks to supply, and coupled with the good implementation of OPEC+ production reduction, the crude oil market prices are prone to rise but difficult to fall in the short term. In terms of domestic supply, refineries in Shandong may slightly increase their production, and some manufacturers may replenish their inventory after the holiday. It is expected that the price of gasoline and diesel will rise slightly in the short term.
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