Price Data

After the Spring Festival, the price of refined petroleum coke rose sharply. According to the data of SunSirs, the average price of the main stream of petroleum coke products of domestic refineries was 1,077.00 RMB/ ton at the beginning of the month, 1,280.50 RMB/ ton on February 18, up or down 23.07%.

On February 18, the petroleum coke commodity index was 95.14, up 6.8 points from the previous day, down 38.85% from 155.59 (2018-01-25), the highest point in the cycle, and up 42.23% from 66.89, the lowest point on March 28, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: Recently, the delivery and investment of local refining petroleum coke are good. Due to the impact of COVID-19, the logistics is greatly limited, and the resumption of work has become a big problem. Some refineries shut down for maintenance in advance, and the supply of petroleum coke in the near future is greatly reduced.

Industry chain: upstream: at present, China's crude oil demand is severely suppressed, and the demand growth is relatively limited. At the same time, Russia's attitude on deepening production reduction is not clear, and the crude oil market has doubts about the implementation of real production reduction. Downstream: the start-up of electrolytic aluminum in the downstream is relatively stable, and the demand for petroleum coke is gradually increasing; the price of calcined coke continues to rise; the storage of petroleum coke in most carbon plants is low. According to the data of SnSirs, the average price of domestic aluminum ingot Market as of February 18 is 13,626.67 RMB/ ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of SunSirs, in the sixth week of 2020 (2.10-2.14), there were 7 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 2 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities were petroleum coke (5.45%), LPG (5.24%) and Brent crude oil (3.15%). There were 6 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 1 kind of commodity falling by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top 3 products falling were methanol (-7.89%), LNG (-2.91%) and gasoline (-1.77%). Last week's average was 0.16%.

Market Forecast

Analysts of petroleum coke of SunSirs predict that: in the near future, affected by COVID-19, the logistics and transportation are limited, and most refineries shut down for maintenance in advance, the supply of petroleum coke decreases. With the relatively stable start of electrolytic aluminum, the demand for petroleum coke increases gradually, the price of petroleum coke rises sharply, and the demand for petroleum coke is still good in the short term. It is expected that the price of Petroleum Coke will continue to rise in the near future, with a price range about 300-1,600 RMB/ ton.

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