SunSirs: Energy, LNG Fell by more than 13% in the First Ten Days of January

1 Price Trend

According to the data monitoring of SunSirs, the average price of LNG on January 2 was 3,716.67 RMB/ ton, and the average price on January 10 was 3,240 RMB/ ton, down 13.45% in the first ten days of January, up 45.39% compared with the same period last year. On January 10, the LNG commodity index was 79.86, down 0.82 points from the previous day, down 61.78% from 208.96 (2017-12-25), the highest point in the cycle, and up 15.99% from 68.85, the lowest point on October 7, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2 Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: according to the data monitoring of SunSirs, as of January 10, the LNG price of Inner Mongolia Erdos Xingxing Energy Co., Ltd. was 3,250 RMB/ton, and that of Inner Mongolia Etok Qianqi Shitai Natural Gas Co., Ltd. was 3,220 RMB/ton. The LNG price of Xinjiang Qinghua Energy Group Co., Ltd. was 3,400 RMB/ton, that of Zizhou LNG plant of Shaanxi Lvyuan Natural Gas Co., Ltd. was 3,250 RMB/ton, that of Xinjiang Guanghui naomao Lake (east of Lanzhou) was 2,300 RMB/ton, that of Shanxi Qinshui Xinao was 3,600 RMB/ton, and that of Shaanxi Zhongyuan lvneng Natural Gas Co., Ltd. was 3,200 RMB/ton. The LNG price of Dazhou Huixin Energy Co., Ltd. was 3,800 RMB/ ton, and the price of LNG rose and fell in regions, and fell as a whole.

Market analysis: after entering January, the decline of LNG has not stopped, falling 13.45% in the first ten days of January. Recently, there are rainy and snowy in many places in the north, and there is the intention of going south. LNG shipments are blocked, manufacturers' inventories are on the high side, and LNG prices continue to fall. At present, most of the downstream purchase nearby, and some areas have a rising market. However, the terminal acceptance capacity is limited, but in fac the delivery is average. At present, it is close to the Spring Festival, the downstream production is gradually reduced or shut down, the demand is reduced, the upstream LNG plant is eager to ship, the price reduction of LNG in some areas is slightly large, and the price of LNG may fall further.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of SunSirs, in last week of 2020 (1.6-1.10), there were 6 kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices in the energy sector, including 1 kind of commodity with a rise of more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities were methanol (5.24%), fuel oil (3.70%) and DME (2.05%). There were 8 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling were LNG (-6.45%), WTI crude oil (-5.54%) and Brent crude oil (-4.71%). Last week's average was - 0.69%.

3 Market Forecast

According to the LNG analyst of SunSirs, the terminal demand is limited at present, and the northwest region and Inner Mongolia region have a large decline. Near the Spring Festival, the downstream production is gradually reduced or shut down, the demand has declined, and the wait-and-see mood of the operators has increased. It is expected that there will still be a reduction in the short term.

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