SunSirs: Sep 7
1. Trend of Rare Earth Market
Prices of domestic Rare Earth Market rose partly this week. The weekend price of Praseodymium Neodymium Oxide was 327,500RMB/t on Sep 6, the price trend rose 2.02%, 0.77% higher than that of the same period of the last year. The domestic factory reference quotation of Dysprosium Ferroalloy Alloy was 1,930,000RMB/t, the price trend rose 1.05%, 67.10% higher than that of the same period of the last year. The domestic factory reference quotation of Praseodymium Neodymium Alloy was 413,500RMB/t, the price trend rose 2.99%, 0.24% higher than that of the same period of the last year. The factory mainstream quotation of Praseodymium Oxide was 382,500RMB/t, the price trend was temporarily stable, 6.71% lower than that of the same period of the last year. The factory mainstream quotation of Dysprosium Oxide was 1,930,000RMB/t, the price trend rose 1.05%, 68.56% higher than that of the same period of the last year. The factory quotation of Neodymium Oxide was 329,500RMB/t, the price trend rose 2.01%, 4.11% higher than that of the same period of the last year. The quotation of Neodymium Metal was 413,500RMB/t, the price trend rose 2.99%, 1.47% higher than that of the same period of the last year. The quotation of Praseodymium Metal was 695,000RMB/t, the price trend was temporarily stable, 5.30% higher than that of the same period of the last year. The factory mainstream quotation of Dysprosium Metal was 2,325,000RMB/t, the price trend rose 1.09%, 43.08% higher than that of the same period of the last year.
2. The Rare Earth Commodity Index
On Sep 6, the Rare Earth Commodity Index was 380, 1 more than that of Sep 5, 62.00% lower than the peak of 1,000 in the cycle (Dec 6, 2011), and 40.22% higher than the lowest point of 271 (Sep 13, 2015). (Cycle: Dec 1, 2011 to date)
3. Quotation Analysis
Recently, the prices of Rare Earth Market has been rising partly, the price of Praseodymium Neodymium products have increased about 3%. The prices of Neodymium Oxide and Praseodymium Neodymium Oxide took the lead in rising. But the downstream demand for the light Rare Earth has not improved significantly, the downstream has replenished a small amount on demand, and the actual transaction price has still been at a low level, and the wait-and-see mood was strong. The prices of heavy Rare Earth Market have rose about 1%, due to Myanmar's export restrictions and the tight domestic supply, the price has been at a high level. The price increase was related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare Earth’s production has particularity, especially the radiation hazard of some products, which makes environmental protection supervision more stringent. Under this circumstance, the manufactures have made a reasonable control of sales. However, the market has been greatly influenced by the external environment recently, mainly because of the active distribution of new energy vichles by mainstream automobile factories at home and abroad. The increasing number of new energy vehicles has brought some favorable support to the Rare Earth Market, and the price of domestic market is rising. However, in the near future, the large enterprise groups will still be cautious about the pricing of products.
The National Environmental Protection Department has not reduced its stringent efforts, which has a great impact on the Rare Earth industry, the operating rate has been low, the market has been cold. At a recent press conference on macroeconomic operation held by the NDRC, Meng Wei, a spokesman for the NDRC, answered reporters' questions on Rare Earth and said that the relevant policies will be promulgated on the basis of in-depth investigation and scientific demonstration, in order to add the special value of Rare Earth as a strategic resource. The effect of supervision has been more and more obvious, the regulations in Jiangxi, a large province of Rare Earth producing, have been more and more strengthening. The supply of raw ore resources in the upstream of the Rare Earth industry has shrunk, and people in the domestic market are waiting for the good news on policies and State Reserve.
4. Prospect for the Future Market
Rare Earth analyst from SunSirs expects that the supply may reduce caused by the strict environmental protection inspection and the regulation of the industry, but the demand increases because of the need from the new energy vehicles, besides, the transactions of the recent Rare Earth Market have improved, some prices of Rare Earth will continue to rise.
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