Xinhua Finance News, Beijing, Nov. 13 (Xinhua) -- Today (13th), the trend of the commodity market has been differentiated, with lithium carbonate, representing new energy, and crude oil, representing old energy, one rising more than 3% and the other falling nearly 4%, presenting a "heaven and hell" situation.

Last night, the OPEC Monthly Report for the rest of the year "acknowledged" that the market has turned into a structural surplus, and international oil prices fell by about 4% in a day, the largest single-day decline in a month. Affected by this, domestic SC crude oil also fell sharply in the early morning of the 13th, and the main contract touched a three-week low of 44.69 RMB per barrel during the day, with a daily decline of about 4%.

In stark contrast, lithium carbonate, known as the "white oil", saw a significant increase in the futures market on the 13th, continuing the upward trend since June this year and approaching the year's highest point of 90,100 RMB/ton.

Behind the contrastive representation of "Black and White Petroleum", it reflects the oversupply pressure in the crude oil market and the bright prospects of the new energy-related industries under the background of energy transition.

OPEC acknowledges "structural glut"

At present, the oversupply of crude oil has almost become a consensus in the market, but OPEC itself has previously emphasized that supply and demand are "tight" and "healthy". In the past few months, OPEC's judgment on the future of the crude oil market has been generally optimistic, in contrast to the "surplus" and "increasing surplus" expectations of institutions such as the International Energy Agency (IEA).

However, in the latest monthly report released yesterday, OPEC rarely admitted that "the global market has shifted from a daily shortage of 4 million barrels per day to a daily surplus of 5 million barrels per day due to reasons such as the unexpected growth in US crude oil production, entering structural surplus." This means that the only "bull" in the major international energy agency has finally "surrendered", and the confidence of the oil market bulls was thus severely hit, and the international oil price fell by $2 per barrel on the same day.

The IEA pointed out in April this year when it first disclosed the outlook for the balance between global oil supply and demand in 2026 that the global oil demand is expected to grow further at a slower pace in 2026, increasing by only 6.1 million barrels per day (mbd), but the supply of crude oil is expected to increase by 9.6 mbd in 2026. In the September report, the IEA further revised up the forecast for the growth of global oil supply in 2026 to 24.0 mbd, and the gap between the supply growth and the demand growth (projected at 6.99 mbd) widened to 17.0 mbd. The agency also stated that global crude oil stocks are expected to continue to rise in the coming period, and the surplus production in 2026 could reach a record level of 40 million barrels per day, which will exert significant downward pressure on oil prices in the medium and long term.

Energy transition brings challenges for crude oil demand

Looking back at the performance of oil prices in recent years, factors driving the deterioration of the supply-demand balance in the oil market include not only the increase in supply from oil-producing countries shifting from "price protection to market share protection", but also the challenges faced by the demand side. In particular, the rapid development of electrification and renewable energy in the context of energy transition has brought shocks to the demand for traditional energy.

The latest KPMG World Energy Statistics Yearbook 2025 points out that countries are increasingly treating renewable energy investment as the cornerstone of energy security, as renewable energy helps countries ensure that their domestic energy systems are not affected by the global energy market and international situations.

The IEA also stated in a previous report that since 2021, the investment scale of the global energy system has started a new round of expansion. With cautious investment in traditional energy, the green transformation sectors represented by renewable energy, power grids, energy storage, end - use electrification applications, and energy conservation in the power sector have become the main destinations of incremental investment, reflecting that the energy transition is steadily advancing. The IEA stated in "Renewable Energy 2025" that the global installed capacity of renewable energy is expected to continue to grow strongly. In the next five years, the newly added installed capacity of global renewable energy will be twice that of the previous five - year increment.

The development of new energy in China is even more rapid. In the first three quarters of this year, the installed capacity of renewable energy in China increased by 310 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 47.7%, accounting for about 84.4% of the new installed capacity. As of September 2025, the installed capacity of wind and solar power in China has accounted for 46% of the total installed capacity of power generation in the country; in the first three quarters of this year, the total power generated by wind and solar power reached 173 billion kilowatt-hours, accounting for 22.3% of the total electricity consumption of the society in the same period.

In response to issues such as consumption and supply stability in the development of new energy, the state has successively introduced a number of positive policies. In the past two days alone, not only has the National Energy Administration issued the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Integrated and United Development of New Energy", but the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has also stated that it will continue to promote the high-quality development of the power battery industry. Driven by policy benefits, the lithium battery sector in the stock market has been active for 13 days.

Long-term oil prices still have support

However, the development of new energy does not mean that traditional energy is completely on the decline. For the crude oil market, the institutional view is that the current economic uncertainty is still highly present, and the relatively mature supply and demand industry chain and potential geopolitical disruptions are still expected to support the crude oil market.

The IEA said in its World Energy Outlook 2025 report that global oil and gas supplies are overall sufficient in the short term, but geopolitical risks remain.

Huatai Securities research report also pointed out that considering the global new energy substitution is steadily advancing, superimposed on the gradual lifting of the second-level voluntary production reduction plan by OPEC+, and the concentrated release of low-cost incremental supplies in South America, Africa and other places, the oil price may still be in a downward range from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the second quarter of 2026. In the long run, after OPEC+ sacrifices price in the short term to compete for market share, the rebalancing pressure is expected to drive a new round of coordination to be reached, and the oil price is still expected to be supported in the long term, superimposed on the cost impact of North American shale oil.

CICC's commodity analysts stated in the 2026 outlook report that the impact of supply disruptions on the spot balance may become more evident in 2026. The benchmark scenario remains an oversupply of spot oil in the market. The replenishment demand from non-OECD countries and geopolitical supply risks may bring opportunities for expected differences. At the same time, the cost challenges of North American shale oil have already emerged. It is expected that the non-OPEC supply expansion cycle may reach a medium- to long-term inflection point in the second half of 2026, potentially providing an opportunity for a trend breakthrough in the central price of oil.

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