Price trend

According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the average price of first grade white sugar at the beginning of this week was 6,132 RMB/ton, and the average price of first grade white sugar at the weekend was 6,134 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.03% and an increase of 5.80% compared to the same period last year.

Analysis review

The fact of sugar production reduction during the 2022/23 pressing season is basically clear. The main production area, Guangxi, has entered the destocking stage after being squeezed, and the sales pressure has gradually decreased, further supporting the enterprise's high price attitude. As the weather warmed, demand for beverages increased, and tourism consumption rebounded to drive demand for white sugar, the supply and demand relationship in the white sugar market presented a weak supply and strong demand state.

In the short term, supply concerns in the international sugar market supported the rise in sugar prices. The theoretical conversion quota for ICE raw sugar futures prices above 20 cents per pound allows for the import and processing costs of Brazil's raw sugar to be above 7,000 RMB/ton. If the import costs remain high, it will affect the import volume of white sugar. It is expected that the amount of imported sugar in 2023 will be lower than 5.27 million tons in the previous year.

Market outlook

The inventory in the midstream and downstream of white sugar was generally low, and there was a certain demand for replenishment. The shipment situation of sugar factories had improved, and there was a strong attitude towards price support. It is expected that the price of the national white sugar market will mainly fluctuate and tend to be stronger.

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