1. Price Trend
As of December 13, the average selling price of domestic fuel oil was 4,552.00 RMB/ton, up 0.66% from 4,522.00 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week.
On December 13, the fuel oil commodity index was 92.19, unchanged from the previous day, down 20.46% from the highest point 115.91 (October 17, 2018), and up 100.07% from the lowest point 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
2. Analysis of Influencing Factors
Products: the domestic fuel oil shipments last week were general, and the actual transaction price was about 4,550 RMB/ton.
Industry chain: according to the monitoring of SunSirs, U.S. WTI crude oil was $59.20/barrel at the beginning of the week, and $59.18/barrel at the end of the week, with a weekly increase or decrease of -0.03%; Brent crude oil was $64.39/barrel at the beginning of the week, and $64.20/barrel at the end of the week, with a weekly increase or decrease of -0.30%. The results of OPEC production reduction meeting exceeded the market expectation, which was good for the oil market, EIA inventory data was completely negative, and the international crude oil market was in high volatility.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of SunSirs, in the 49th week of 2019 (12.9-12.13), there were four kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, the top 3 commodities are petroleum coke (1.49%), fuel oil (0.66%) and LPG (0.59%). There were ten kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top 3 products were MTBE (- 3.90%), LNG (- 3.03%) and methanol (- 1.51%). Last week's average up and down was - 0.52%.
3. Market Forecast
According to energy analysts of SunSirs, last week's international crude oil shocked, the domestic ship fuel market was generally traded, the overall demand of ship fuel market was low, the transaction was light and stable. It is expected that the fuel oil market price will be stable in the near future, or about 4,550 RMB/ton.
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