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SunSurs: Polyester Staple Fiber is Expected to Rise due to Upstream Good Atmosphere
December 16 2019 10:45:29SunSirs(Linda)

According to the price data monitoring of SunSirs, as of December 14, the average ex factory price of 1.4D*38mm polyester staple fiber was 7,074RMB/ton, up 1.43%, up 100RMB/ton, down 23.41%, down 2,162RMB/ton. The prices of large factories are generally rising, and the prices are between 7,000-7,200RMB/ton, which is very uniform.

According to Xinhua news agency, China and the United States have basically reached an agreement on the first stage of trade agreement. On Friday, China and the United States made positive progress in negotiations. The United States has promised to cancel some of the tariffs it intends to impose on China and the tariffs it has already imposed, and will increase its efforts to exempt China from tariffs on the transportation of American products. Then trump said that the United States will not impose new tariffs on the United States. The trade dispute between China and the United States has already As a result, the global economic growth slows down and the growth of global oil demand slows down. The good result of this negotiation made the international oil price rise to a new high in three months, and the settlement price of WTI exceeded $60 for the first time in nearly three months.

PTA main futures (2005) closed lower this week at 4,914, up 119 yuan from the beginning of the week. PTA spot price is 4,875RMB/ton, the production cost is about 4,320RMB/ton, and the processing fee is 480RMB/ton. Hailun Petrochemical's 1.2 million ton plant is scheduled to be overhauled in late December; Hanbang Petrochemical's 2.2 million ton plant is scheduled to be overhauled in 10 days on December 10; chuanneng chemical fault was shut down on November 1 with a current load rate of about 80%; Xinjiang Zhongtai new 1.2 million ton PTA plant is scheduled to be put into operation near December 20. At present, the industry operating rate of PTA is 92.89%. Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester production and sales are light. The comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is 70%. The maintenance of polyester equipment is increased, and the starting rate is down to 86.88%.

As of December 14, the average ex factory price of polyester yarn in Shandong Province is 14,420RMB/ton. There is almost no change in the price in the past two months, which is very stable. The quotation of middle end large-scale factory is 13,700-14,200RMB/ton, and that of high-end large-scale factory is 15,000-15,300RMB/ton. The overall delivery and investment atmosphere of the yarn market is cold, the inventory of enterprises is large, and the capital chain can not be turned around. Many manufacturers take holidays in advance to ease the pressure. The main reason for the slow change of yarn is that the impact of imported yarn is large. From the perspective of cost performance, the competitiveness of outer yarn is strong, resulting in the impact of domestic yarn. In addition, the performance of viscose staple fiber and cotton for the whole year is tepid and tepid. The manufacturer concentrated to inventory, and the price has been falling slowly.

To sum up, analysts from SunSirs believe that the upstream oil price is still rising in a short term due to the improvement of the macro situation; PTA's growth is limited in recent days, new production capacity is expected to be put in and enterprise maintenance is restarted, coupled with many enterprise maintenance, the supply and demand trend is weak, PTA is expected to continue the weak pattern; the downstream yarn is affected by the upstream cotton and viscose, plus the inventory of High, the price is in a weak downward trend all the year round. It is expected that the price trend of polyester staple fiber in the later period will follow the crude oil, which will rise slightly in the short term, up about 300-400RMB/ton.

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