According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, the price of thermal coal was consolidated last week. On December 12, the energy index stood at 1,111, unchanged from yesterday, down 28.83% from the highest point of 1,561 (2021-10-21) in the cycle, and up 117.42% from the lowest point of 511 on March 1, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present)

In terms of origin, the price of thermal coal was consolidated and operated, and the market trading atmosphere was fair. Influenced by the policy, the control policy was gradually relaxed. However, the downstream market as a whole has a good supply guarantee and long-term coal cooperation. The market as a whole has a strong wait-and-see mood, and multi-dimensional procurement is mainly based on rigid needs.

In terms of downstream ports, affected by the temperature drop, the power plant has increased its demand for thermal coal and increased its enthusiasm for finding goods. The traders' quotations are relatively firm, but the enthusiasm of the downstream to get goods is average, the number of transactions is small, and the acceptance of high prices is average.

According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Commerce, last week (November 28 to December 4), the national coal price mainly increased, including 1,596 RMB/ton and 968 RMB/ton of No.2 smokeless lump coal and thermal coal, up 0.9% and 0.1% respectively, and 1,489 RMB/ton of coking coal, down 0.1%. The price of steel fluctuated slightly, including 4,178 RMB/ton and 4,290 RMB/ton for hot rolled strip and ordinary medium plate, up 0.4% and 0.1% respectively, and 4,059 RMB/ton for deformed bar, down 0.1%.

Analysts from SunSirs believe that the trading atmosphere of thermal coal in the production area is fair with the release of the prevention and control policy. In terms of downstream ports, the downstream is still mainly wait-and-see for thermal coal, generally accept high prices, play a game between supply and demand, and the overall market is dominated by deadlock. It is comprehensively estimated that China thermal coal price will be mainly adjusted in the later period, depending on the downstream market demand.

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