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SunSirs: Toluene Continued Its Gains This Week, With a 2.41% Increase during the Week (January 25-31)

February 02 2021 13:34:01     SunSirs (John)

Price trend

According to data from SunSirs’ bulk list, domestic toluene continued its upward trend this week. On January 24, the price of toluene was 4,150 RMB/ton; on this Sunday (January 24) the price was 4,250 RMB/ton, an increase of 100 RMB/ton or 2.41% from last week.

On January 29, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 78.50, a decrease of 1.57 points from previous day, a decrease of 36.52% from the cycle highest point of 123.67 points (2017-12-26), and an increase of 53.38% from the lowest point of 51.18 points on April 14, 2020. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to present)

Analysis review

During the week, Sinopec’s toluene price increased by 150-250 RMB/ton. Part of the downstream purchased this week, the supply of toluene tightened and prices rose. In terms of external disks, toluene in the external disk continued to rise this week. As of January 29, the price of toluene imported in South Korea was 553 US dollars/ton, which was up by 5 US dollars/ton, compared to January 22, an increase of 0.91%; The price of imported toluene in East China was 574.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 20.5 US dollars/ton or 3.7% from January 22.

In terms of crude oil, the news of Iraq’s decision to implement compensatory production cuts at the beginning of this week supported the crude oil market, but the epidemic was still severe, curbing demand in the crude oil market. Compared with January 22, Brent fell by 0.095 US dollars/barrel, or 0.17%; WTI fell by 0.19 US dollars/barrel, or 0.36%.

Downstream: In terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China rose slightly this week, with domestically produced goods at 12,766.67 RMB/ton, an increase of 1.86% from last week and an increase of 9.12% from the same period last year. The East China market was operating strongly, news of supplier equipment maintenance was fermented, and export demand was good. The industry offered high prices and the downstream holidays were successively closed. The market's acceptance of high prices was low, and the follow-up of buying orders was weak.

In the PX market, domestic PX prices stabilized this week, with an average weekend price of 5,200 RMB/ton, down 24.64% year-on-year. The domestic PX operating rate is around 60%. This week, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia dropped to 60%, and the supply of PX in Asia decreased. The external price of PX remained fluctuating this week. As of the weekend, the Asian market closing price of PX was 665-667 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 683-685 US dollar /ton CFR China.

Market outlook

Toluene analysts of SunSirs believe: Firstly, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC+ production cuts, the total number of US oil rigs, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, look at the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and America, and the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and China and the United States, the progress of the new crown vaccine, the dollar index and the stock market linkage.

Downstream terminals have ceased operations and logistics have decreased, and the toluene market is expected to enter a period of stable price consolidation. Continue to pay attention to the downstream procurement situation and the impact of crude oil and external disks on toluene prices.

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