SunSirs: Crude Oil Rises, and the Toluene Market Follows the Price Increase

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the toluene market fluctuated and rose from June 16 to June 23, 2025. The base price of toluene on June 16 was 6,010 RMB/ton, and the base price of toluene on June 23 was 6,170 RMB/ton, up 2.66%. This week, the toluene market fluctuated and rose, and international crude oil fluctuated and rose, and the toluene market followed the rise significantly. The supply in Shandong area was tight this week, and the quotations of refineries generally increased. The downstream purchased on demand, and the trading was OK. The market atmosphere in East China and South China was good this week, and the downstream purchased on demand. The overall market negotiation atmosphere was OK.

Cost side: The overall crude oil market price closed higher. As of June 20, the settlement price of the July contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US$74.93/barrel. The settlement price of the August contract of Brent crude oil futures was US$77.01/barrel. On the one hand, the tension in the Middle East has intensified, resulting in tight supply of crude oil and a sharp rise in the international oil market; on the other hand, the Sino-US trade negotiations have made good progress, and the US crude oil inventory has dropped beyond expectations. Positive factors support the international oil market, and the crude oil market is mainly rising.

Supply side:

Sinopec's toluene enterprises are operating normally, the production of the equipment is stable, the products are mostly for self-use, and the production and sales are stable. As of June 23, the East China Company quoted 6150 RMB/ton, the North China Company quoted 6100 RMB/ton, the South China Company quoted 6200-6250 RMB/ton, and the Central China Company quoted 6250 RMB/ton.

Demand side:

On June 23, Sinopec Sales Company's paraxylene price was temporarily stable, and the current implementation price was 7,000 RMB/ton. East China, North China, Central China, and South China all implemented this price. The Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other units are operating stably and sales are normal. It is the same as on June 16. As of June 20, the closing price of paraxylene in the Asian market was 873-875 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 898-900 US dollars/ton CFR China, an increase of 44 US dollars/ton from June 13.

Market outlook: The overall trend of the macro-side is strong in the near future, crude oil prices have risen significantly, and the fundamentals are generally strong. From the perspective of supply and demand, the supply side is relatively loose recently, and the downstream demand is relatively rigid. The supply and demand side has little impact on the toluene market recently. It is expected that the toluene market will continue to be stable and strong in the short term.

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