SunSirs: Demand was Weak, and the Toluene Market was Fluctuating Downward

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the toluene market fluctuated and fell from June 30 to July 7, 2025. On June 30th, the benchmark price of toluene was 6,070 RMB/ton, and on July 7th, the benchmark price of toluene was 5,660 RMB/ton, a decrease of 6.75%. The toluene market fluctuated downward this cycle, and the focus of negotiations had fallen. The mainstream refineries in Shandong continued to lower their ex factory prices in the later part of the week. As the price difference with xylene narrowed, some oil blending companies were attracted to enter the market for procurement. The overall shipment situation in Shandong was good, but the market price declined significantly. Trading in the East and South China regions had been relatively quiet last week, with downstream market entry not being active. On exchange quotes had generally decreased, lacking demand support, and spot market prices continued to decline.

Analysis review

Cost side: The international crude oil market fluctuated and risen this cycle. As of July 4th, the US WTI crude oil futures were closed for the Independence Day holiday, and the September Brent crude oil futures contract settlement price was $68.30 per barrel.

Supply side: Sinopec's toluene enterprise was operating normally, with stable production of equipment and many products for personal use, resulting in stable production and sales. As of July 7th, East China Company quoted 5,600 RMB/ton, North China Company quoted 5,600 RMB/ton, South China Company quoted 56,50-5,700 RMB/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5,800 RMB/ton.

Demand side: On July 7th, Sinopec Sales Company temporarily stabilized the price of xylene, with a current price of 7,250 RMB/ton. This price was implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other facilities were operating stably and sales were normal. Reduced by 50 RMB/ton compared to June 30th. As of July 4th, the closing prices of the xylene market in Asia were $815-817/ton FOB Korea and $840-842/ton CFR China, a decrease of $26/ton from June 27th.

Market outlook

Recently, the trend of crude oil has been fluctuating, with significant fluctuations and insufficient guidance for the market. The overall supply side was relatively stable, and some parts of East China were slightly tight due to the impact of shipping schedules, which provided some support for the market. However, the overall performance of the demand side was weak, making it difficult for the toluene market to pick up and maintain a weaker trend.

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