SunSirs: Analysis of China's Agricultural Product Supply and Demand Situation for December 2025 Released

The Market Early Warning Expert Committee of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has released its latest analysis of China's agricultural product supply and demand situation for December 2025:

01 Corn Prices Expected to Remain Firm in the Short Term

This month's forecast for China's corn supply and demand situation remains consistent with last month's projections. Entering December, frequent rain and snow in the Northeast production areas have hampered grain logistics. The breeding sow inventory remains at a relatively high level, with strong purchasing intent from feed enterprises. Deep-processing enterprises hold lower inventories compared to the same period last year, creating restocking demand. Corn prices are expected to remain firm in the short term, but considering the basic balance between corn production and demand, the upside potential for future increases is limited.

02 Domestic High-Protein Soybean Supply Remains Tight

This month's forecast for China's soybean supply and demand remains unchanged from last month. Soybean procurement in the Northeast region is progressing faster than in previous years. High-protein soybeans are in tight supply with firm prices, while low-protein soybeans still have some surplus, requiring farmers to accelerate sales. The U.S. soybean harvest is largely complete with record-high production. Brazil's soybean planting is nearing completion, with favorable soil moisture conditions in major producing areas supporting crop growth. Global soybean supply and demand remain ample.

03 Cotton Production Forecast Revised Upward

The 2025/26 cotton harvest is largely complete. Based on comprehensive data from processing and sales, actual production is expected to exceed projections. According to China Cotton Network, as of December 4, the national cotton processing rate reached 79.0%, up 3.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the sales rate stood at 37.3%, a 21.9 percentage point increase year-on-year. Data from the China Fiber Quality Monitoring Center shows that as of December 7, the national cotton inspection volume reached 4.93 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%. This month, the yield for the 2025/26 season was revised upward to 2,328 kilograms per hectare, and the production volume was adjusted to 6.7 million tons. Significant progress in Sino-US trade negotiations has restored confidence in the cotton market, leading to an upward revision of consumption to 7.6 million tons.

04 Edible Vegetable Oil Production Shows Slight Increase

This month's projections for edible vegetable oil imports and consumption remain unchanged from last month. Driven by increased cottonseed yields boosting cottonseed oil production, China's edible vegetable oil output for the 2025/26 season has been revised upward by 40,000 tons to 30.73 million tons. Recent temperatures across most southern regions have been normal or above average, generally favorable for rapeseed growth. However, vigilance is needed against potential localized drought impacts in later stages.

05 Sugar

This month's forecast for China's sugar supply and demand remains unchanged from last month. Major producing regions have fully commenced the 2025/26 sugar production season. Due to earlier adverse weather, sugar production in Guangxi has been delayed. By the end of November, Guangxi and Yunnan had cumulatively produced 178,700 tons of sugar, down 372,300 tons year-on-year, with varying degrees of decline in sugar extraction rates. As new sugar enters the market at an accelerating pace in the coming period, close attention will be paid to crushing progress, sugar content changes, and the commencement of holiday stockpiling activities.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on December 15th,SunSirs benchmark price for soybean oil was 8376.00 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.78% compared to the beginning of the month (8442.00 RMB /ton).

Application of SunSirs Benchmark Pricing：

Traders can price spot and contract transactions based on the pricing principle of agreed markup and pricing formula (Transaction price=SunSirs price + Markup).

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