SunSirs: Reduced Rapeseed Production in Ukraine Boosts Market

Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Economy, Environment and Agriculture, Taras Vysotsky, stated that rapeseed production in 2025 will definitely be lower than last year. The estimated rapeseed production in Ukraine for 2025 is 3.3 million tons, slightly lower than last year's 3.7 million tons. Sunflower seed production is estimated at 11.5 million to 12 million tons, unchanged from last year.

The estimated 3.3 million tons of rapeseed production in Ukraine in 2025, a 10.8% decrease from last year's 3.7 million tons, may lead to higher spot prices. As a major commodity raw material, reduced production will exacerbate the tight supply and demand in the market, supporting the upward trend in the spot market.

The reduced supply of rapeseed as a raw material will push up rapeseed oil production costs, which is beneficial for rising spot prices. Combined with rapeseed oil futures market data (e.g., the 2601 contract closed at 9,564 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan), the current upward trend may further strengthen, as the supply contraction reinforces bullish sentiment, and futures prices are expected to continue rising in the short term.

Reduced rapeseed production may lead to a decrease in rapeseed meal supply, supporting spot prices. The rapeseed meal futures market is showing positive signs (e.g., the 2601 contract closed at 2,549 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan), and reduced production will strengthen this trend. However, since rapeseed meal demand is greatly affected by the feed industry, the positive impact is moderate, and spot and futures prices are expected to rise moderately.

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