SunSirs: Supply and Demand Were Tight, and the Downward Trend of Ethylene Glycol Was Narrowing

Price trend

Ethylene glycol prices softened in September. According to data from SunSirs, as of September 15, the average domestic price of oil-based ethylene glycol was 4,458.33 RMB/ton, down 0.59% from the average price of 4,485 RMB/ton on September 1.

Regarding ethylene glycol at ports, the September 15, 2025, spot contract basis was weak, with intraday basis trading ranges of +95 to +108 RMB/ton for this week's contracts. As of market close, the basis for this week's contracts was quoted between +97 and +99 RMB/ton, with the September contract's basis between +100 and +102 RMB/ton, and the October contract's basis between +74 and +78 RMB/ton.

Domestic coal-based polyester-grade ethylene glycol spot prices (bulk, tax included, self-pickup) ranged from 4,000 to 4,140 RMB/ton for full truckload delivery.

As for overseas ethylene glycol,, as of September 12, the recent cargo negotiation price was around $516/ton.

Overview of Ethylene Glycol Plant Dynamics and Supply and Demand Forecast

New Plant Progress:

Yulong Petrochemical plans to start production and conduct a trial run in late September (exceeding expectations), while Ningxia Kunpeng may begin trial operation in the fourth quarter. Sichuan Zhengda Kai's new 600,000 tons/year plant began discharging material in May and was included in production capacity in June.

Maintenance Expectations:

In October, Tongliao Jinmei, Henan Yongcheng, and Shenghong units may undergo maintenance.

Supply and Demand Outlook:

Supply and demand will shift toward a loose balance in October, with plant supply fulfillment influencing market equilibrium.

Ethylene Glycol Inventory

As of September 15, 2025, total ethylene glycol inventories at major ports in East China reached 395,600 tons. This represents an increase of 32,400 tons compared to the 363,200 tons recorded on September 11, and a decrease of 86,400 tons compared to the 482,000 tons recorded on June 30, 2025.

Market outlook

In the short term, ethylene glycol arrivals are expected to increase, and visible port inventories will continue to recover. Pre-holiday stockpiling is also likely to lead to strong port shipments this month. As of September 15, supply and demand remained tight, supporting the delivery basis. However, the anticipated commissioning of new plants is expected to lead to loosening of supply and demand in the future. It is expected that the market will be mainly volatile and weaker in the near future, with limited downward space.

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